Found 456 article(s) for author 'Fiscal Policy'

How aging, inequality and China make the U.S. government likely to get larger

How aging, inequality and China make the U.S. government likely to get larger. Lawrence Summers, September 12, 2017, Opinion, “Speaking at an event organized by Robert Greenstein, president of the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities, I argued last week that unless our values have changed profoundly in an anti-government direction, the balance of pressures from economic change will lead to an expansion of the federal budget relative to gross domestic product. This was also the conclusion of a paper released by Paul Van de Water of the center. Excellent summaries were provided by Al Hunt and David Leonhardt.” Link

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Should Governments Invest More in Nudging?

Should Governments Invest More in Nudging? John Beshears, Cass Sunstein, August 2017, Paper, “Governments are increasingly adopting behavioral science techniques for changing individual behavior in pursuit of policy objectives. The types of “nudge” interventions that governments are now adopting alter people’s decisions without coercion or significant changes to economic incentives. We calculated ratios of impact to cost for nudge interventions and for traditional policy tools, such as tax incentives and other financial inducements, and we found that nudge interventions often compare favorably with traditional interventions. We conclude that nudging is a valuable approach that should be used more often in conjunction with traditional policies, but more calculations are needed to determine the relative effectiveness of nudging.Link

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Tax Reform and Budget Deficits in America

Tax Reform and Budget Deficits in America. Martin Feldstein, August 29, 2017, Opinion, “Republican leaders in the US House of Representatives have been at work for more than a year designing a major reform of personal and corporate taxes. Although the changes may widen the budget deficit in the short term, the incentive effects of lower rates will boost economic growth, implying lower long-term deficits.Link

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Trump’s CEOs Resigned. His Cabinet Should do the Same

Trump’s CEOs Resigned. His Cabinet Should do the Same. Lawrence Summers, August 17, 2017, Opinion, “President Trump, recognizing the inevitable, has disbanded his business advisory councils to preempt the tidal wave of resignations that was in the offing. Given my long-standing views about chief executives lending legitimacy to the Trump administration, I was delighted that a group of CEOs forced this step.Link

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Production and Welfare: Progress in Economic Measurement

Production and Welfare: Progress in Economic Measurement. Dale Jorgenson, 2017, Paper, “While the GDP was intended by its originators as a measure of production, the absence of a measure of welfare in the national accounts has led to widespread misuse of the GDP to proxy welfare. Measures of welfare are needed to appraise the outcomes of changes in economic policies and evaluate the results. Concepts that describe the income distribution, such as poverty and inequality, fall within the scope of welfare rather than production. This paper reviews recent advances in the measurement of production and welfare within the national accounts, primarily in the United States and the international organizations. Expanding the framework beyond the national accounts has led to important innovations in the measurement of both production and welfare.Link

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Rising Medical Costs Mean More Rough Times Ahead

Rising Medical Costs Mean More Rough Times Ahead. David Cutler, August 8, 2017, Opinion, “Medical costs are rising again, after recent years of historic lows. As the figure shows, growth rates of real per person medical spending in the past 3 years have averaged 3.4% annually, up from 0.9% in 2011 to 2013. Although the current growth rate is low in a historical context, it exceeds the economy’s growth as a whole. Thus, health costs are expected to reappear on the radar screen of governments, businesses, and households.Link

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The Ricardian Approach to Budget Deficits

The Ricardian Approach to Budget Deficits. Robert Barro, 2017, Book Chapter, “In recent years there has been a lot of discussion about US budget deficits. Many economists and other observers have viewed these deficits as harmful to the US and world economies. The supposed harmful effects include high real interest rates, low saving, low rates of economic growth, large currentaccount deficits in the United States and other countries with large budget deficits, and either a high or low dollar (depending apparently on the time period).” (Reprint from 1989) Link

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What history tells us about Trump’s budget fantasy

What history tells us about Trump’s budget fantasy. Lawrence Summers, May 30, 2017, Opinion, “At the risk of beating a dead horse, here are some thoughts on the Trump administration’s 3 percent growth forecast. Zero interest rates seemed inconceivable 15 years ago, and yet they happened. Almost no one forecast the productivity boom that took place in the United States between 1995 and 2005 or the magnitude of the 2008 financial crisis. So any statement that a given forecast is inconceivable is unwarranted.Link

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Trump’s Magic Budget

Trump’s Magic Budget. Carmen Reinhart, May 29, 2017, Opinion, “US President Donald Trump’s administration has now released its budget plans for fiscal year 2018. Among the details provided in the document, entitled America First – A Budget Blueprint to Make America Great Again, are projections for the expected path of gross federal debt as a percentage of GDP, which is shown to decline from its current level of about 106% to about 80% in 2027. Debt held by the public is expected to mirror this path, shrinking from 77% to 60% over this period.Link

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