Found 449 article(s) for author 'Fiscal Policy'

The Ricardian Approach to Budget Deficits

The Ricardian Approach to Budget Deficits. Robert Barro, 2017, Book Chapter, “In recent years there has been a lot of discussion about US budget deficits. Many economists and other observers have viewed these deficits as harmful to the US and world economies. The supposed harmful effects include high real interest rates, low saving, low rates of economic growth, large currentaccount deficits in the United States and other countries with large budget deficits, and either a high or low dollar (depending apparently on the time period).” (Reprint from 1989) Link

Tags: , ,

What history tells us about Trump’s budget fantasy

What history tells us about Trump’s budget fantasy. Lawrence Summers, May 30, 2017, Opinion, “At the risk of beating a dead horse, here are some thoughts on the Trump administration’s 3 percent growth forecast. Zero interest rates seemed inconceivable 15 years ago, and yet they happened. Almost no one forecast the productivity boom that took place in the United States between 1995 and 2005 or the magnitude of the 2008 financial crisis. So any statement that a given forecast is inconceivable is unwarranted.Link

Tags: , , , , ,

Trump’s Magic Budget

Trump’s Magic Budget. Carmen Reinhart, May 29, 2017, Opinion, “US President Donald Trump’s administration has now released its budget plans for fiscal year 2018. Among the details provided in the document, entitled America First – A Budget Blueprint to Make America Great Again, are projections for the expected path of gross federal debt as a percentage of GDP, which is shown to decline from its current level of about 106% to about 80% in 2027. Debt held by the public is expected to mirror this path, shrinking from 77% to 60% over this period.Link

Tags: , , , ,

The Effects of Fiscal Consolidations: Theory and Evidence

The Effects of Fiscal Consolidations: Theory and Evidence. Alberto Alesina, May 2017, Paper, “We investigate the macroeconomic effects of fiscal consolidations based upon government spending cuts, transfers cuts and tax hikes. We extend a narrative dataset of fiscal consolidations, finding details on over 3500 measures. Government spending and transfer cuts reduce output by less than tax hikes. Standard New Keynesian models match our results when fiscal shocks are persistent. Wealth effects on aggregate demand mitigates the impact of a persistent spending cut. Static distortions caused by persistent tax hikes cause larger shifts in aggregate supply under sticky prices. This channel explains different sizes of multipliers found in fiscal stimuli compared to consolidation plans.Link

Tags: , , , ,

No Idea What Trump Means by Reciprocal Tax

No Idea What Trump Means by Reciprocal Tax. Martin Feldstein, May 3, 2017, Video, “Martin Feldstein, professor of economics at Harvard University, discusses his thoughts on tax policy and the Trump administration. He speaks with Bloomberg’s David Westin and Jonathan Ferro on “Bloomberg Daybreak: Americas.” (Source: Bloomberg)” Two Parts –  Link  1 “Reciprocal Tax” Link 2 – “Big Issue is Tax Reform

Tags: , , , , , ,

Subsidizing Health Insurance for Low-Income Adults: Evidence from Massachusetts and Implications for Future Health Reforms

Subsidizing Health Insurance for Low-Income Adults: Evidence from Massachusetts and Implications for Future Health Reforms. Nathaniel Hendren, Mark Shepard, May 2017, Paper, “How much are low-income individuals willing to pay for health insurance? What are the implications for insurance market reforms that change government subsidies? Using administrative data from Massachusetts’ subsidized insurance exchange in 2009-2013, we exploit discontinuities in the premium subsidy schedule to estimate willingness to pay and costs of insurance among low-income adults. We obtain three main results…Link

Tags: , , , , ,

How Best to Tax Business

How Best to Tax Business. N. Gregory Mankiw, April 23, 2017, Opinion, “The details of the tax code may not make your heart sing, but they are enormously important and, at long last, they may be changing. In fact, the next 12 months are shaping up to be a critically important time.  Despite an uneven start, tax reform is on the agenda in Congress. And the ideas being considered, especially regarding business taxation, are not mere tweaks to our ossified system. They would profoundly alter how the government raises money and upend the incentives for private decision makers. This is fascinating to tax policy nerds like me. But it is important for everyone to understand.Link

Tags: , , , , , ,

Larry Summers Sees More Downside Risks

Larry Summers Sees More Downside Risks. Lawrence Summers, April 12, 2017, Video, “Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said that while it’s difficult to call a market top, valuations have gotten ahead of the economy in recent months. “I’m not sure that I see what in the economy would justify a market move of the magnitude we’ve seen in the last months,” Summers said in an interview Wednesday on Bloomberg Television. “It wouldn’t surprise me if people look back and see that there was a bit of a sugar high in some of the valuations that we’re seeing.”” Link

Tags: , , , ,

Optimal Taxation and Insurance Using Machine Learning

Optimal Taxation and Insurance Using Machine Learning. Maximilian Kasy, April 10, 2017, Paper, “How should one use (quasi-)experimental evidence when choosing policies such as tax rates, health insurance copay, unemployment benefit levels, class sizes in schools, etc.? This paper suggests an approach based on maximizing posterior expected social welfare, combining insights from (i) optimal policy theory as developed in the field of public finance, and (ii) machine learning using Gaussian process priors. We provide explicit formulas for posterior expected social welfare and optimal policies in a wide class of policy problems.Link

Tags: , , , , , , ,