Found 1191 article(s) for author 'Economic Growth'

Populist Trade Policies will not Protect Jobs Anywhere in the World

Populist Trade Policies will not Protect Jobs Anywhere in the World. Kenneth Rogoff, August 2, 2017, Opinion, “As US and European political leaders fret about the future of quality jobs, they would do well to look at the far bigger problems faced by developing Asia – problems that threaten to place massive downward pressure on global wages. In India, where per capita income is roughly a tenth that of the US, more than 10 million people a year are leaving the countryside and pouring into urban areas, and they often cannot find work even as chaiwalas, much less as computer programmers. The same angst that Americans and Europeans have about the future of jobs is an order of magnitude higher in Asia.Link

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Recovery is Not Resolution

Recovery is Not Resolution. Carmen Reinhart, August 1, 2017, Opinion, “Earlier this year, the consensus view among economists was that the United States would outstrip its advanced-economy rivals. The expected US growth spurt would be driven by the economic stimulus package described in President Donald Trump’s election campaign. But the most notable positive economic news of 2017 among the developed countries has been coming from Europe.Link

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Deregulating Is Not So Easy

Deregulating Is Not So Easy. Cass Sunstein, July 25, 2017, Opinion, “In what sounded like a major announcement, the Trump administration last week highlighted numbers showing it was making big strides in controlling regulations. It is true that the pace of rulemaking has slowed dramatically. Thus far, the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs has approved just 41 regulations, meaning that we might see fewer than 100 in all of 2017. That would be less than one-fifth of the average under the most recent Republican president, George W. Bush.” Link

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Diagnostic Expectations and Stock Returns

Diagnostic Expectations and Stock Returns. Andrei Shleifer, July 2017, Paper, “We revisit La Porta’s (1996) finding that returns on portfolios of stocks with the most optimistic analyst long term earnings growth forecasts are substantially lower than those for stocks with the most pessimistic forecasts. We document that this finding still holds, and present several further facts about the joint dynamics of fundamentals, expectations, and returns for these portfolios. We then propose a new approach to modeling belief formation and over-reaction to news that explains these facts, based on a portable psychological model of judgment by representativeness.Link

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The G20’s Misguided Globalism

The G20’s Misguided Globalism. Dani Rodrik, July 6, 2017, Opinion, “This year’s G20 summit in Hamburg promises to be among the more interesting in recent years. For one thing, US President Donald Trump, who treats multilateralism and international cooperation with cherished disdain, will be attending for the first time. Trump comes to Hamburg having already walked out of one of the key commitments from last year’s summit – to join the Paris climate agreement “as soon as possible.” And he will not have much enthusiasm for these meetings’ habitual exhortation to foreswear protectionism or provide greater assistance to refugees.Link

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China Could Export a Recession to Everyone Else

China Could Export a Recession to Everyone Else. Kenneth Rogoff, July 5, 2017, Video, “Soaring debt levels in China were a serious concern as the fallout of any crisis would hit everyone else, said a former International Monetary Fund (IMF) economist on Thursday. “If there’s a country in the world which is really going to affect everyone else and which is vulnerable, it’s got to be China today,” Kenneth Rogoff, economics professor at Harvard University, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Thursday.Link

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Can Innovation Save Us From Ourselves?

Can Innovation Save Us From Ourselves? James Heskett, July 5, 2017, Opinion, “Every year about this time McKinsey Quarterly publishes a list of books being read by select CEOs. If a book comes up frequently on the list, it may serve as the subject of this column—last year, Joshua Cooper Ramo’s book The Seventh Sense was the centerpiece of the August column. While we can’t assume that CEOs endorse what they read, it’s nevertheless interesting to know what they are thinking about.Link

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Russia’s future looks bleak without Economic and Political Reform

Russia’s future looks bleak without Economic and Political Reform. Kenneth Rogoff, July 5, 2017, Opinion, “When the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, meets his US counterpart, Donald Trump, at this week’s G20 summit in Hamburg, he will not be doing so from a position of economic strength. To be sure, despite the steep drop in oil prices that began three years ago, Russia has managed to escape a deep financial crisis. But while the economy is enjoying a modest rebound after two years of deep recession, the future no longer seems as promising as its leadership thought just five years ago. Barring serious economic and political reform, that bodes ill for Putin’s ability to realise his strategic ambitions for Russia.Link

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