Found 49 article(s) for author 'Carmen Reinhart'

From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis

From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis. Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff, August 2011, Paper. “The economics profession has an unfortunate tendency to view recent experience in the narrow window provided by standard datasets.1 It is particularly distressing that so many cross-country analyses of financial crises rely on debt and default data going back only to 1980, when the underlying cycle can be a half century or more long, not just 30 years.2 This paper attempts to address this deficiency by employing a comprehensive new long-term historical database for studying debt and banking crises, inflation, and currency crashes…”  Link

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The liquidation of government debt

The liquidation of government debt. Carmen Reinhart, March 2011, Paper. “Historically, periods of high indebtedness have been associated with a rising incidence of default or restructuring of public and private debts. A subtle type of debt restructuring takes the form of “financial repression.” Financial repression includes directed lending to government by captive domestic audiences (such as pension funds), explicit or implicit caps on interest rates, regulation of cross-border capital movements, and (generally) a tighter connection between government and banks. In the heavily regulated financial markets of the Bretton Woods…” Link

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Capital Controls: Myth and Reality—A Portfolio Balance Approach

Capital Controls: Myth and Reality—A Portfolio Balance Approach. Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff, February 2011, Paper. “The literature on capital controls has (at least) four very serious apples-to-oranges problems: (i) There is no unified theoretical framework to analyze the macroeconomic consequences of controls; (ii) there is significant heterogeneity across countries and time in the control measures implemented; (iii) there are multiple definitions of what constitutes a “success” and (iv) the empirical studies lack a common methodology–furthermore these are significantly “overweighted” by a couple of country cases…” Link

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The Forgotten History of Domestic Debt

The Forgotten History of Domestic Debt. Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff, 2011, Paper. “The authors study the history of defaults on domestic public debt and the impact on inflation and external debt defaults. The results help them draw some bold conclusions as to why countries default on external debts at seemingly low debt thresholds. The authors also explore the neglect of domestic debt in the literature and assert that repayments do not necessarily favor external over domestic creditors…” May require purchase or user account. Link

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A Decade of Debt

A Decade of Debt. Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff, 2011, Paper. “This paper presents evidence that public debts in the advanced economies have surged in recent years to levels not recorded since the end of World War II, surpassing the heights reached during the First World War and the Great Depression. At the same time, private debt levels, particularly those of financial institutions and households, are in uncharted territory and are (in varying degrees) a contingent liability of the public sector in many countries. Historically, high leverage episodes have been associated with slower economic growth…” Link

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Growth in a Time of Debt

Growth in a Time of Debt. Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff, May 2010, Paper. “In this paper, we exploit a new multi-country historical dataset on public (government) debt to search for a systemic relationship between high public debt levels, growth and inflation. Our main result is that whereas the link between growth and debt seems relatively weak at “normal” debt levels, median growth rates for countries with public debt over roughly 90 percent of GD? are about one percent lower than other wise: average (mean) growth rates are several percent lower. Surprisingly, the relationship between public debt and…” Link

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The Aftermath of Financial Crises

The Aftermath of Financial Crises. Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff, 2009, Paper. “A year ago, we presented a historical analysis comparing the run-up to the 2007 US subprime financial crisis with the antecedents of other banking crises in advanced economies since World War II (Reinhart and Rogoff 2008a). We showed that standard indicators for the United States, such as asset price inflation, rising leverage, large sustained current account deficits, and a slowing trajectory of economic growth, exhibited virtually all the signs of a country on the verge of a financial crisis—indeed, a severe one. In this paper, we engage in a similar comparative historical analysis that is focused on the aftermath of systemic banking crises…Link

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Banking Crises: An Equal Opportunity Menace

Banking Crises: An Equal Opportunity Menace. Kenneth Rogoff, Carmen Reinhart, December 2008, Paper. “The historical frequency of banking crises is quite similar in high- and middle-to-low-income countries, with quantitative and qualitative parallels in both the run-ups and the aftermath. We establish these regularities using a unique dataset spanning from Denmark’s financial panic during the Napoleonic War to the ongoing global financial crisis sparked by subprime mortgage defaults in the United States. Banking crises dramatically weaken fiscal positions in both groups, with government revenues invariably contracting, and fiscal…” Link

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Is the 2007 US Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison

Is the 2007 US Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison. Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff, 2008, Paper. “The first major financial crisis of the twenty-first century involves esoteric instruments, unaware regulators. and skittish investors. It also follows a well-trodden path laid down by centuries of financial folly. Is the “special” problem of sub-prime mortgages really different? Our examination of the longer historical record. which is part of a larger effort on currency and debt crises, finds stunning qualitative and quantitative parallels across a number of standard financial crisis indicators…” Link

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