Found 49 article(s) for author 'Carmen Reinhart'

Investment in the wake of crises: Asia 15 years later

Investment in the wake of crises: Asia 15 years later, Carmen Reinhart, December 17, 2013, Opinion. “Financial crises cast a long shadow on investment. For nine major Asian economies, average investment as a share of GDP declined sharply during 1998-2012 from its average in the decade before the Asian crisis (if China and India are excluded, the estimated decline exceeds 9%). This column suggests that there is a connection between the sustained reserve accumulation and the significantly lower levels of investment in the region.” Link

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Crowding Out Redefined: The Role of Reserve Accumulation

Crowding Out Redefined: The Role of Reserve Accumulation. Carmen Reinhart, Takeshi Tashiro, November 2013, Paper. “It is well understood that investment serves as a shock absorber at the time of crisis. The duration of the drag on investment, however, is perplexing. For the nine Asian economies we focus on in this study, average investment/GDP is about 6 percentage points lower during 1998-2012 than its average level in the decade before the crisis; if China and India are excluded, the estimated decline exceeds 9 percent. We document how in the wake of crisis home bias in finance usually…” (May require user account or purchase) Link

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Asia Chartbook: Crises, Credit and Debt, 1835-2013

Asia Chartbook: Crises, Credit and Debt, 1835-2013. Carmen Reinhart, November 2013, Paper. “This Chartbook, which is a companion piece to Carmen M. Reinhart and Takeshi Tashiro (2013) “Crowding Out Redefined: The Role of Reserve Accumulation,” focuses on nine Asian economies: China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. Like its predecessor (Reinhart, 2010), it provides a pictorial history, on a country-by-country basis. In addition to public debt, we trace out the evolution of its composition between domestic and external borrowing…” (May require purchase or user account) Link

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Austerity is Not the Only Answer to a Debt Problem

Austerity is Not the Only Answer to a Debt Problem. Carmen Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff, May 1, 2013, Article. “The recent debate about the global economy has taken a distressingly simplistic turn. Some now argue that just because one cannot definitely prove very high debt is bad for growth (though the weight of the results still say it is), then high debt is not a problem. Looking beyond the recent public debate about the literature on debt – we have already discussed our results on debt and growth in that context – the debate needs to be reconnected to the facts. Let us start with one: the ratios of debt to gross domestic product are at historically high levels…” Link

 

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Debt, Growth and the Austerity Debate

Debt, Growth and the Austerity Debate. Carmen Reinhart, April 25, 2013, Opinion. “May 2010, we published an academic paper, “Growth in a Time of Debt.” Its main finding, drawing on data from 44 countries over 200 years, was that in both rich and developing countries, high levels of government debt — specifically, gross public debt equaling 90 percent or more of the nation’s annual economic output — was associated with notably lower rates of growth. Given debates occurring across the industrialized world, from Washington to London to Brussels to Tokyo, about the best way to recover from the Great Recession…” Link

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This Time is Different, Again? The US Five Years after the Onset of Subprime

This Time is Different, Again? The US Five Years after the Onset of Subprime. Carmen Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff, October 22, 2012, Paper. “The strength of the US recovery has become a political issue in the presidential election. The US is doing better than other advanced economies, but famous economists associated with the Romney campaign claim this is not good enough. The US, they argue, is different. Here, the masters of the ‘this time is different’ research genre – Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff – argue that US historical performance is not different when it is properly measured, so the economy’s performance is better than expected…” Link

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Causes of Financial Crises Past and Present: The Role of the This-Time-Is-Different Syndrome

Causes of Financial Crises Past and Present: The Role of the This-Time-Is-Different Syndrome. Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff, 2012, Book Chapter. “The financial press has often characterized the 2007—2008 United States subprime mess as a new breed of crisis. Indeed, this view often points to the international repercussions of the U.S.-based crisis as evidence that the globalization of financial portfolios has introduced new channels for spillovers that were never present before. In light of the unfolding Greek tragedy, there is also considerable confusion in academic and policy circles as to whether the…” Link

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Public Debt Overhangs: Advanced-Economy Episodes since 1800

Public Debt Overhangs: Advanced-Economy Episodes since 1800. Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff, April 2012, Paper. “We identify the major public debt overhang episodes in the advanced economies since the early 1800s, characterized by public debt to GDP levels exceeding 90 percent for at least five years. Consistent with Reinhart and Rogoff (2010) and most of the more recent research, we find that public debt overhang episodes are associated with lower growth than during other periods. The duration of the average debt overhang episode is perhaps its most striking feature. Among the 26 episodes we identify…” Link

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Limits of Monetary Policy in Theory and Practice

Limits of Monetary Policy in Theory and Practice. Carmen Reinhart, October 2011, Paper. “The view that modest alterations to monetary policy have vast consequences for national economies would seem to be inconsistent with theory and evidence. Most modern economic models (represented authoritatively by Woodford 2005) offer limited scope for policy surprises. The basic logic is that spending depends on decisions capitalized over the longer term, and small perturbations in the level of the short-term interest rate do not matter much to those values. More fundamentally, the prominence accorded to authorities…” Link verified March 28, 2014

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This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly

This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff, August 7, 2011, Book. “Throughout history, rich and poor countries alike have been lending, borrowing, crashing–and recovering–their way through an extraordinary range of financial crises. Each time, the experts have chimed, “this time is different”–claiming that the old rules of valuation no longer apply and that the new situation bears little similarity to past disasters. With this breakthrough study, leading economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff definitively prove them wrong…” May require purchase or user account. Link

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