Found 48 article(s) for author 'Carmen Reinhart'

Brexit’s Blow To Globalization

Brexit’s Blow To Globalization. Carmen Reinhart, June 29. 2016, Opinion. “The United Kingdom’s Brexit referendum has shaken equity and financial markets around the world. As in prior episodes of contagious financial turmoil, the victory of the “Leave” vote sent skittish global investors toward the usual safe havens. US Treasury bonds rose, and the dollar, Swiss franc, and yen appreciated, most markedly against sterling.Link

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Global Cycles: Capital Flows, Commodities, and Sovereign Defaults, 1815-2015

Global Cycles: Capital Flows, Commodities, and Sovereign Defaults, 1815-2015. Carmen Reinhart, January 3, 2016, Paper, “Capital flow and commodity cycles have long been connected with economic crises. Sparse historical data, however, has made it difficult to connect their timing. We date turning points in global capital flows and commodity prices across two centuries and provide estimates from alternative data sources. We then document a strong overlap between the ebb and flow of financial capital, the commodity price super-cycle, and sovereign defaults since 1815. The results have implications for today, as many emerging markets are facing a double bust in capital inflows and commodity prices, making them vulnerable to crises …Link

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Does reserve accumulation crowd out investment?

Does reserve accumulation crowd out investment? Carmen Reinhart, January 2016, Paper, “It is understood that investment serves as a shock absorber in times of crisis. The duration of the drag on investment, however, perplexing. For the Asian economies we study, average investment/GDP is about 6 percentage points lower during 1998–2014 than its average level in the decade before the Asian crisis; the decline is greater if China is excluded. We document how in the wake of crisis home bias in finance increases markedly as public and private sectors look inward when external financing becomes prohibitively costly or undesirable from a financial stability perspective. Reserve accumulation involves an official institution (i.e., the central bank) funneling domestic saving abroad and thus competing with domestic borrowers in the market for loanable funds.Link

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The International Monetary Fund: 70 Years of Reinvention

The International Monetary Fund: 70 Years of Reinvention. Carmen Reinhart, December 10, 2015, Paper. “A sketch of the International Monetary Fund’s 70-year history reveals an institution that has reinvented itself over time along multiple dimensions. This history is primarily consistent with a “demand driven” theory of institutional change, as the needs of its clients and the type of crisis changed substantially over time. Some deceptively “new” IMF activities are not entirely new. Before emerging market economies dominated IMF programs, advanced economies were its earliest (and largest) clients through the 1970s…Link

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Sovereign Debt and Financial Crisis: Theory and Historical Evidence

Sovereign Debt and Financial Crisis: Theory and Historical Evidence. Carment Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff, October 2015, Paper. “This issue of the Journal of the European Economic Association presents papers from the October 2014 conference on Sovereign Debt Crises organized by Ṣebnem Kalemli‐Özcan, Carmen Reinhart, and Ken Rogoff. This project arose from the need to provide rigorous research on the topic. The so‐called ‘Great Contraction’ in the world’s advanced economies is the most severe and synchronized global financial crisis since the Great Depression. It has forced all concerned parties to reassess the roles played by public...Link

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The Pitfalls of External Dependence: Greece, 1829-2015

The Pitfalls of External Dependence: Greece, 1829-2015. Carmen Reinhart, October 2015, Paper. “Two centuries of Greek debt crises highlight the pitfalls of relying on external financing. Since its independence in 1829, the Greek government has defaulted four times on its external creditors – with striking historical parallels. Each crisis is preceded by a period of heavy borrowing from foreign private creditors. As repayment difficulties arise, foreign governments step in, help to repay the private creditors, and demand budget cuts and adjustment programs as a condition for the official bailout loans. Political interference from abroad mounts…Link

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PolicyCast: Carmen Reinhart on what has worked in past sovereign debt crises

PolicyCast: Carmen Reinhart on what has worked in past sovereign debt crises. Carmen Reinhart, September 23, 2015, Audio, “The Boston Globe presents the Harvard Kennedy School PolicyCast, a weekly podcast on public policy, politics, and global issues. HKS PolicyCast is hosted by Matt Cadwallader at Harvard Kennedy School.Link

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Carmen Reinhart: Inflation, the Fed, and the Big Picture

Carmen Reinhart: Inflation, the Fed, and the Big Picture. Carmen Reinhart, September 5, 2015, Opinion. “Inflation – its causes and its connection to monetary policy and financial crises – was the theme of this year’s international conference of central bankers and academics in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. But, while policymakers’ desire to be prepared for potential future risks to price stability is understandable, they did not place these concerns in the context of recent inflation developments at the global level – or within historical perspective. For the 189 countries for which data are available, median inflation for 2015 is running just below two per cent...” Link

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Yuan Devaluation Necessary Step for China, Reinhart Says

Yuan Devaluation Necessary Step for China, Reinhart Says. Carmen Reinhart, August 12, 2015, Video, “Carmen Reinhart, an economist at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government, talks about the devaluation of the Chinese yuan and its impact on financial markets, currencies and the global economy. Reinhart, speaking with Betty Liu and Pimm Fox on Bloomberg Television’s “Bloomberg Markets,” also discusses commodity price cycles, Chinese lending to emerging-market economies and Federal Reserve policy.Link

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The Antecedents and Aftermath of Financial Crises as told by Carlos F. Díaz Alejandro

The Antecedents and Aftermath of Financial Crises as told by Carlos F. Díaz Alejandro. Carmen Reinhart, July 2015, Paper. “Some of the best-known papers of Carlos F. Díaz Alejandro were about Latin America’s crises in the 1980s and 1930s. I will show data, figures and evidence here about the crises in the advanced economies 30 years later that fit the same narrative. His unadulterated words aptly describe modern problems across geographical borders and, in this case, income levels. This attests to his timeless insight and understanding. Because some of the observations he made have general applicability to the study of recurring patterns across crises, I have taken the liberty to label these as lessons…Link

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