Found 45 article(s) for author 'Carmen Reinhart'

Addicted to Dollars

Addicted to Dollars. Carmen Reinhart, March 1, 2017, Opinion, “Since the end of World War II, the United States’ share in world GDP has fallen from nearly 30% to about 18%. Other advanced economies have also experienced sustained declines in their respective slices of the global pie. But you wouldn’t know it from looking at the international monetary system.Link

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The Country Chronologies to Exchange Rate Arrangements into the 21st Century: Will the Anchor Currency Hold?

The Country Chronologies to Exchange Rate Arrangements into the 21st Century: Will the Anchor Currency Hold? Carmen Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff, February 2017, Paper, “Detailed country-by-country chronologies are an informative companion piece to our paper “Exchange Arrangements Entering the 21st Century: Which Anchor Will Hold?,” which provides a comprehensive history of anchor or reference currencies, exchange rate arrangements, and a new measure of foreign exchange restrictions for 194 countries and territories over 1946-2016. The individual country chronologies are also a central component of our approach to classifying regimes. These country histories date dual or multiple exchange rate episodes, as well as to differentiate between pre-announced pegs, crawling pegs, and bands from their de facto counterparts. We think it is important to distinguish between say, de facto pegs or bands from announced pegs or bands, because their properties are potentially different. The chronologies also flag the dates for important turning points, such as when the exchange rate first floated, or when the anchor currency was changed. We extend our chronologies as far back as possible, even though we only classify regimes from 1946 onwards.Link

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Is the Deflation Cycle Over?

Is the Deflation Cycle Over? Carmen Reinhart, January 31, 2017, Opinion, “Until the global financial crisis of 2008-2009, deflation had all but disappeared as a concern for policymakers and investors in the advanced economies, apart from Japan, which has been subject to persistent downward pressure on prices for nearly a generation. And now deflationary fears are on the wane again.Link

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The Return of Dollar Shortages

The Return of Dollar Shortages. Carmen Reinhart, October 24, 2016, Opinion, “Immediately after World War II ended, a new phrase entered the economic lexicon: “dollar shortage.” European economies were coping with extensive war-related damage and a broad array of impediments to their efforts to rebuild their industrial base. At the time, the United States was the only provider of capital equipment for reconstruction. So, without access to US dollars, Europe’s economies could not obtain the inputs needed to increase their exports.Link

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The Perils of Debt Complacency

The Perils of Debt Complacency. Carmen Reinhart, September 28, 2016, Opinion, ““What a government spends the public pays for. There is no such thing as an uncovered deficit.” So said John Maynard Keynes in A Tract on Monetary Reform.  But Robert Skidelsky, the author of a magisterial three-volume biography of Keynes, disagrees. In a recent commentary entitled “The Scarecrow of National Debt,” Skidelsky offered a rather patronizing narrative, in a tone usually reserved for young children and pets, about his aged, old-fashioned, and financially illiterate friend’s baseless anxiety about the burden placed on future generations by the rising level of government debt.Link

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The Easy Money Contagion

The Easy Money Contagion. Carmen Reinhart, August 24, 2016, Opinion, “To consider the actions taken by the world’s major central banks in the past month is to invite an essential question: when – and where – will all this monetary easing end? At the end of July, the Bank of Japan announced that it would maintain its current negative interest rates and bond-buying program. At the same time, the BOJ pledged that it would nearly double its annual purchases of equity-traded funds, from ¥3.3 trillion ($32.9 billion) to ¥6 trillion. And yet the announcement of a monetary-policy package that in a different era would have been considered inconceivably accommodative, actually disappointed financial markets. To the chagrin of Japanese policymakers, the yen strengthened against major currencies.Link

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Brexit’s Blow To Globalization

Brexit’s Blow To Globalization. Carmen Reinhart, June 29. 2016, Opinion. “The United Kingdom’s Brexit referendum has shaken equity and financial markets around the world. As in prior episodes of contagious financial turmoil, the victory of the “Leave” vote sent skittish global investors toward the usual safe havens. US Treasury bonds rose, and the dollar, Swiss franc, and yen appreciated, most markedly against sterling.Link

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Global Cycles: Capital Flows, Commodities, and Sovereign Defaults, 1815-2015

Global Cycles: Capital Flows, Commodities, and Sovereign Defaults, 1815-2015. Carmen Reinhart, January 3, 2016, Paper, “Capital flow and commodity cycles have long been connected with economic crises. Sparse historical data, however, has made it difficult to connect their timing. We date turning points in global capital flows and commodity prices across two centuries and provide estimates from alternative data sources. We then document a strong overlap between the ebb and flow of financial capital, the commodity price super-cycle, and sovereign defaults since 1815. The results have implications for today, as many emerging markets are facing a double bust in capital inflows and commodity prices, making them vulnerable to crises …Link

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Does reserve accumulation crowd out investment?

Does reserve accumulation crowd out investment? Carmen Reinhart, January 2016, Paper, “It is understood that investment serves as a shock absorber in times of crisis. The duration of the drag on investment, however, perplexing. For the Asian economies we study, average investment/GDP is about 6 percentage points lower during 1998–2014 than its average level in the decade before the Asian crisis; the decline is greater if China is excluded. We document how in the wake of crisis home bias in finance increases markedly as public and private sectors look inward when external financing becomes prohibitively costly or undesirable from a financial stability perspective. Reserve accumulation involves an official institution (i.e., the central bank) funneling domestic saving abroad and thus competing with domestic borrowers in the market for loanable funds.Link

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