Global Trade and the Dollar. Gita Gopinath, November 2017, Paper, “We document that the U.S. dollar exchange rate drives global trade prices and volumes. Using a newly constructed data set of bilateral price and volume indices for more than 2,500 country pairs, we establish the following facts: 1) the dollar exchange rate quantitatively dominates the bilateral exchange rate in price pass-through and trade elasticity regressions. U.S. monetary policy induced dollar fluctuations have high pass-through into bilateral import prices. 2) Bilateral noncommodities terms of trade are essentially uncorrelated with bilateral exchange rates. 3) Œe strength of the U.S. dollar is a key predictor of rest-of-world aggregate trade volume and consumer/producer price inflation.” Link

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Deals and Development: The Political Dynamics of Growth Episodes. Lant Pritchett, 2017, Book, “Provides a novel framework for understanding how growth episodes emerge and when growth is maintained for a sustained period. Draws on country specific examples to ground theory in practice. Explains actionable methods of intervention to improve a country’s chance at achieving transformative economic growth. Uses a clear layout and unified approach to help the reader find the information they need. An open access title available under the terms of a CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 International licence.Link

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Lessons Learned from Cap-and-Trade Experience. Robert Stavins, 2017, Paper, “Article 6 of the Paris Agreement provides for cooperation among Parties to meet their collective GHG emissions-reduction targets, including through linkage. The simplest way for this to occur is by linking cap-and-trade systems, although linkage of heterogeneous policies, including carbon taxes and performance standards, is also possible in principle.1 Linkages between well-designed national (or subnational) cap-and-trade systems can lower global mitigation costs and improve the functioning of national markets.Link

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Capital Flow Cycles: A Long, Global View. Carmen Reinhart, October 31, 2017, Paper, “This paper develops a new, extensive database on international capital flows over the past 200 years by combining long-run data on international debt issuance, the current account, and central bank reserves across countries. We show that crossborder financial flows from financial centers to the periphery are cyclical, with similar patterns over time. We document the interaction between the capital flow cycle, the commodity price super-cycle, and short-term interest rates.Link

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Can Audits Backfire? Evidence from Public Procurement in Chile. Dina Pomeranz, October 2017, Paper, “Audits are generally intended to monitor compliance with existing rules. However, audits can also create unintended impacts and incentives through the specific protocol by which they are executed. In particular, audits can discourage the use of complex administrative procedures with more rules for auditors to check. This paper investigates the effects of procurement audits on public entities’ choice of purchase procedures in Chile. While the national procurement legislation tries to promote the use of more transparent and competitive auctions rather than discretionary direct contracts for selection of suppliers, auctions are significantly more complex and the audit protocol mechanically leads to more scrutiny and a higher probability of further investigation for auctions than for direct contracts.Link

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The Political Economy of Carbon Pricing Policy Design. Joseph Aldy, October 2017, Paper, “The goal of the Harvard Project on Climate Agreements, which was established in 2007, is to identify and advance scientifically sound, economically sensible, and politically pragmatic public policy options for addressing global climate change. Drawing upon leading thinkers from around the world, the Project conducts research on policy architecture, key design elements, and institutional dimensions of international and domestic climate-change policy. The Project is directed by Robert N. Stavins, A. J. Meyer Professor of Energy and Economic Development, Harvard Kennedy School. For more information, see the Project’s website…Link

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On the Measurement of Upstreamness and Downstreamness in Global Value Chains. Pol Antras, October 30, 2017, Paper, “This paper offers four contributions to the empirical literature on global value chains (GVCs). First, we provide a succinct overview of several measures developed to capture the upstreamness or downstreamness of industries and countries in GVCs. Second, we employ data from the World Input-Output Database (WIOD) to document the empirical evolution of these measures over the period 1995-2011; in doing so, we highlight salient patterns related to countries’ GVC positioning – as well as some puzzling correlations – that emerge from the data. Third, we develop a theoretical framework – which builds on Caliendo and Parro’s (2015) variant of the Eaton and Kortum (2002) model – that provides a structural interpretation of all the entries of the WIOD in a given year.Link

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Assessing the Distribution of Impacts in Global Benefit‐Cost Analysis. Lisa A. Robinson, James K. Hammitt, October 2017, Paper, “There is widespread agreement that benefit‐cost analyses should be supplemented with information on how the impacts are distributed across individuals with different characterics (such as income) . Yet reviews of completed analyses suggest that such information is rarely provided. The goal of this paper is therefore relatively simple: to encourage analysts to provide information on the distribution of net benefits throughout the population in addition to assessing the overall impacts of the policy.Link

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The Fed shortlist: who will hold the second most important job in the US? Jeffrey Frankel, October 27, 2017, Opinion, “US President Donald Trump’s administration is expected, by 2 November, to announce its choice, subject to Senate approval, to succeed Janet Yellen as chair of the Federal Reserve Board in February 2018. The White House has indicated it is weighing up five potential candidates. Not all of them would be a good choice.Link

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Rick Perry’s Anti-Market Plan to Help Coal. Jody Freeman, October 25, 2017, Opinion, “Lost in all the attention to the Trump administration’s effort to scuttle President Barack Obama’s clean power plan is its attempt to prop up the struggling coal industry by doing something very un-Republican — subsidizing it.Link

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