Found 291 article(s) in category 'Trade Policy'

Populist Trade Policies will not Protect Jobs Anywhere in the World

Populist Trade Policies will not Protect Jobs Anywhere in the World. Kenneth Rogoff, August 2, 2017, Opinion, “As US and European political leaders fret about the future of quality jobs, they would do well to look at the far bigger problems faced by developing Asia – problems that threaten to place massive downward pressure on global wages. In India, where per capita income is roughly a tenth that of the US, more than 10 million people a year are leaving the countryside and pouring into urban areas, and they often cannot find work even as chaiwalas, much less as computer programmers. The same angst that Americans and Europeans have about the future of jobs is an order of magnitude higher in Asia.Link

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China Could Export a Recession to Everyone Else

China Could Export a Recession to Everyone Else. Kenneth Rogoff, July 5, 2017, Video, “Soaring debt levels in China were a serious concern as the fallout of any crisis would hit everyone else, said a former International Monetary Fund (IMF) economist on Thursday. “If there’s a country in the world which is really going to affect everyone else and which is vulnerable, it’s got to be China today,” Kenneth Rogoff, economics professor at Harvard University, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Thursday.Link

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Russia’s future looks bleak without Economic and Political Reform

Russia’s future looks bleak without Economic and Political Reform. Kenneth Rogoff, July 5, 2017, Opinion, “When the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, meets his US counterpart, Donald Trump, at this week’s G20 summit in Hamburg, he will not be doing so from a position of economic strength. To be sure, despite the steep drop in oil prices that began three years ago, Russia has managed to escape a deep financial crisis. But while the economy is enjoying a modest rebound after two years of deep recession, the future no longer seems as promising as its leadership thought just five years ago. Barring serious economic and political reform, that bodes ill for Putin’s ability to realise his strategic ambitions for Russia.Link

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Trump’s Sugar Swamp

Trump’s Sugar Swamp. Jeffrey Frankel, June 22, 2017, Opinion, “As the United States, Mexico, and Canada prepare to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement, as US President Donald Trump’s administration has demanded, much attention is being devoted to one item in particular: sugar. The negotiations will probably produce a sweet deal for the US sugar industry, highlighting the emptiness of Trump’s promises to “drain the swamp” of special-interest influence over policymaking.Link

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Does Addressing Bilateral Trade Imbalances Work?

Does Addressing Bilateral Trade Imbalances Work? Martin Feldstein, June 27, 2017, Opinion, “Politicians and economists view trade imbalances very differently. Consider the United States’ trade deficit. Economists emphasize that the total US trade deficit with the rest of the world is the result of policies and actions at home. Simply put, if the US invests more than the country as a whole saves, it must import the difference from the rest of the world, creating the existing trade deficit.” Link

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The Effects of Fuel Prices, Regulations, and Other Factors on U.S. Coal Production, 2008-2016

The Effects of Fuel Prices, Regulations, and Other Factors on U.S. Coal Production, 2008-2016. John Coglianese, James Stock, June 15, 2017, Paper, “As is shown in Figure 1, between 2008 and 2015, U.S. coal production fell from 1,172 million tons to 897 million tons and coal employment fell from 87,000 to 66,000. In 2016, coal production declined further, to 739 million tons, 37% below its 2008 level. It is widely understood that a primary factor in this decline has been the sharp decline in natural gas prices, which has led to the substitution of natural gas for coal in electricity generation. In 2008, the national average price of natural gas delivered to an electricity generator nationally was 4.3times the price of coal, on a Btu basis; by 2016, this relative price had fallen to 1.4 as a result of the development and spread of fracking. This national decline masks regional variation, with natural gas prices being even more competitive in some regions. For the first time, in 2016 electricity generated from gas overtook generation from coal.Link

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The Real Effects of Capital Controls: Firm-Level Evidence from a Policy Experiment

The Real Effects of Capital Controls: Firm-Level Evidence from a Policy Experiment. Laura Alfaro, June 2017, Paper, “This paper evaluates the effects of capital controls on firm-level stock returns and real investment using data from Brazil. On average, there is a statistically significant drop in cumulative abnormal returns consistent with an increase in the cost of capital for Brazilian firms following capital control announcements. Large firms and the largest exporting firms appear less negatively affected compared to external-finance-dependent firms, and capital controls on equity inflows have a more negative announcement effect on equity returns than those on debt inflows. Overall, the findings have implications for macro-finance models that abstract from heterogeneity at the firm level to examine the optimality of capital control taxation.Link

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The Economics (and Politics) of Trump’s Paris Withdrawal

The Economics (and Politics) of Trump’s Paris Withdrawal. Robert Stavins, June 6, 2017, Opinion, “The announcement on June 1 by President Donald Trump that he will withdraw the United States from the Paris climate agreement was misguided, and the justifications Trump provided were — at best — misleading and, to some degree, simply untruthful. Withdrawing from the Paris agreement will be damaging both to the United States and the world. Sadly, Trump’s withdrawal announcement makes clear that the president has little understanding of the nature of the agreement, the process for withdrawal, or the implications of withdrawal for the United States, let alone for the world.Link

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