Found 292 article(s) in category 'Jobs and Unemployment'

Optimal Taxation and Insurance Using Machine Learning

Optimal Taxation and Insurance Using Machine Learning. Maximilian Kasy, April 10, 2017, Paper, “How should one use (quasi-)experimental evidence when choosing policies such as tax rates, health insurance copay, unemployment benefit levels, class sizes in schools, etc.? This paper suggests an approach based on maximizing posterior expected social welfare, combining insights from (i) optimal policy theory as developed in the field of public finance, and (ii) machine learning using Gaussian process priors. We provide explicit formulas for posterior expected social welfare and optimal policies in a wide class of policy problems.Link

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Concentrating on the Fall of the Labor Share

Concentrating on the Fall of the Labor Share. Lawrence Katz, April 2017, Paper, “In this paper, we discuss an explanation for the fall in share of labour in GDP based on the rise of “superstar firms.” If globalization or technological changes advantage the most productive firms in each industry, product market concentration will rise as industries become increasingly dominated by superstar firms with high profit margins and a low share of labor in firm value-added and sales. As the importance of superstar firms increases, the aggregate labour share will fall. This hypothesis suggests that sales will increasingly concentrate in a small number of firms and that industries where concentration rises most will have the largest declines in the labour share. We find support for these predictions aggregating up micro-data from the US Census 1982-2012.Link

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The Earnings of Undocumented Immigrants

The Earnings of Undocumented Immigrants. George Borjas, March 2017, Paper, “Over 11 million undocumented persons reside in the United States, and there has been a heated debate over the impact of legislative or executive efforts to regularize the status of this population. This paper examines the determinants of earnings for undocumented workers. Using newly developed methods that impute undocumented status for foreign-born persons sampled in microdata surveys, the study documents a number of findings. First, the age-earnings profile of undocumented workers lies far below that of legal immigrants and of native workers, and is almost perfectly flat during the prime working years.Link

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The Decline of Big-Bank Lending to Small Business: Dynamic Impacts on Local Credit and Labor Markets

The Decline of Big-Bank Lending to Small Business: Dynamic Impacts on Local Credit and Labor Markets. Samuel Hanson, Jeremy Stein, March 2017, Paper, “Small business lending by the four largest U.S. banks fell sharply relative to other banks beginning in 2008 and remained depressed through 2014. We explore the consequences of this credit supply shock, with a particular focus on the resulting dynamic adjustment process. Using a difference-indifference approach that compares counties where the Top 4 banks had a higher initial market share to counties where they had a smaller share, we find that the aggregate flow of small business credit fell and interest rates rose from 2006 to 2010 in high Top 4 counties. Economic activity also contracted in these affected counties: fewer businesses expanded employment, the unemployment rate rose, and wages fell. Moreover, the employment effects were concentrated in industries that are most reliant on external finance, such as manufacturing.Link

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Contextual Knowledge and Ethnic Migrant Inventors

Contextual Knowledge and Ethnic Migrant Inventors. Prithwiraj Choudhury, 2017, Paper, “We study the role of ethnic Chinese/Indian migrant inventors in transferring contextual knowledge across borders and the role of ethnic networks in further disseminating such knowledge. Using a unique dataset of herbal patents filed in the United States by western firms and universities, we test whether contextual knowledge is codified in the west by ethnic migrant inventors and spread by their ethnic networks. Our identification comes from an exogenous shock to the quota of H1B visas, and a list of institutions that were exempted from the shock. We generate a control group of non-herbal patents that have similar medicinal purposes as our herbal patents through textual matching. Using this framework, we estimate a triple differences equation, and find that herbal patents are likely to be filed by Chinese/Indian migrant inventors and are likely to be initially cited by other Chinese/Indian inventors.Link

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Das Knowhow Kapital

Das Knowhow Kapital. Ricardo Hausmann, March 17, 2017, Opinion, “It has been a quarter-century since apartheid ended, and 23 since the African National Congress took power in South Africa. But, as President Jacob Zuma reported in his recent State of the Nation Address, the country’s whites remain in control.  “White households earn at least five times more than black households,” said Zuma, and “only 10% of the top 100 companies on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange are owned by black South Africans.” Whites still represent 72% of top management. The Gini coefficient, a widely-used measure of inequality, shows no sign of falling and remains one of the highest in the world.” Link

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Urban Productivity in the Developing World

Urban Productivity in the Developing World. Edward Glaeser, March 2017, Paper, “Africa is urbanizing rapidly, and this creates both opportunities and challenges. Labor productivity appears to be much higher in developing-world cities than in rural areas, and historically urbanization is strongly correlated with economic growth. Education seems to be a strong complement to urbanization, and entrepreneurial human capital correlates strongly with urban success. Immigrants provide a natural source of entrepreneurship, both in the U.S. and in Africa, which suggests that making African cities more livable can generate economic benefits by attracting talent. Reducing the negative externalities of urban life requires a combination of infrastructure, incentives, and institutions. Appropriate institutions can mean independent public authorities, public-private partnerships, and non-profit entities depending on the setting.Link

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Getting India’s women into the workforce: Time for a smart approach

Getting India’s women into the workforce: Time for a smart approach. Rohini Pande, March 10, 2017, Opinion “Between 1990 and 2015, India’s real GDP (gross domestic product) per capita grew from US$375 to US$1572, but its female labour force participation rate (LFPR) fell from 37% to 28%. This gives us a puzzle to solve: why isn’t India following the same trajectory as most other countries at a similar level of growth, where female LFP rises with GDP?Link

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Why We Don’t Value Flextime Enough

Why We Don’t Value Flextime Enough. Michael Luca, March 3, 2017, Opinion, “Earlier this month, the city council in Copenhagen voted unanimously to give all municipal workers greater control over their schedules. The city’s 10,000 employees will work the same number of hours as before but with greater freedom to decide when that…Link

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New and Enduring Dual Structures of Employment in Japan: The Rise of Non-Regular Labor, 1980s–2010s

New and Enduring Dual Structures of Employment in Japan: The Rise of Non-Regular Labor, 1980s–2010s. Andrew Gordon, February 10, 2017, Paper, “A steady rise in what is called ‘non-regular employment’ is the most notable change in Japanese working life since at least the 1980s. Such workers accounted for nearly 40% of all employees by 2015. This paper focuses on the results of the turn to non-regular employment and identifies its distinctive aspects in the context of a long history of various forms of precarious employment. A historical perspective shows that newer forms of second-tier status, including some that can be termed ‘non-regular regular’ employment, have come to overlay continuing older ones.” Link

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