Found 182 article(s) in category 'Q1: Jobs?'


The posts collected here identify the firms, industries, and geographic locations where the jobs of the future will likely emerge.  They also consider the public policies that have the best chance of fostering the types of jobs that will support a robust middle class.

The Ambition-Marriage Trade-Off Too Many Single Women Face

The Ambition-Marriage Trade-Off Too Many Single Women Face. Amanda Pallais, May 8, 2017, Paper, “Even today, research shows that men still prefer female partners who are less professionally ambitious than they are. Because of this, many single women face a trade-off: Actions that lead to professional success might be viewed less favorably in the heterosexual marriage market. This trade-off can be pervasive and is not limited to big decisions like volunteering for a leadership role or asking for a promotion. Daily activities such as speaking up in meetings, taking charge of a project, working late, or even certain outfits, haircuts, and makeup can be desirable in one market and not in the other.” Link

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The Role of Unemployment in the Rise in Alternative Work Arrangements

The Role of Unemployment in the Rise in Alternative Work Arrangements. Lawrence Katz, 2017, Paper, “Much evidence indicates that the traditional nine-to-five employee-employer relationship is in decline. Although comprehensive, high-frequency data on US work arrangements are not available, the trend appears to have begun before the advent of the platform economy and the spread of online gig work.” Link

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The Expanding Gender Earnings Gap: Evidence from the LEHD-2000 Census

The Expanding Gender Earnings Gap: Evidence from the LEHD-2000 Census. Claudia Goldin, 2017, Paper, “The gender earnings gap is an expanding statistic over the lifecycle. We use the LEHD Census 2000 to understand the roles of industry, occupation, and establishment 14 years after leaving school. The gap for college graduates 26 to 39 years old expands by 34 log points, most occurring in the first 7 years. About 44 percent is due to disproportionate shifts by men into higher-earning positions, industries, and firms and about 56 percent to differential advances by gender within firms. Widening is greater for married individuals and for those in certain sectors. Non-college graduates experience less widening but with similar patterns.Link

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Household Matters: Revisiting the Returns to Capital among Female Micro-entrepreneurs

Household Matters: Revisiting the Returns to Capital among Female Micro-entrepreneurs. Rohini Pande, April 17, 2017, Paper, “Several field experiments find positive returns to grants for male and not female microentrepreneurs. But, these analyses largely overlook that male and female micro-entrepreneurs often belong to the same household. Using data from randomized trials in India, Sri Lanka and Ghana, we show that the gender gap in microenterprise performance is not due to a gap in aptitude. Instead, low average returns of female-run enterprises are observed because women’s capital is invested into their husbands’ enterprises rather than their own. When women are the sole household enterprise operator, capital shocks lead to large increases in profits. Household-level income gains are equivalent regardless of the grant or loan recipient’s gender.” Link

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Survival of the Fittest: The Impact of the Minimum Wage on Firm Exit

Survival of the Fittest: The Impact of the Minimum Wage on Firm Exit. Michael Luca, April 11, 2017, Paper, “We study the impact of the minimum wage on firm exit in the restaurant industry, exploiting recent changes in the minimum wage at the city level. The evidence suggests that higher minimum wages increase overall exit rates for restaurants. However, lower quality restaurants, which are already closer to the margin of exit, are disproportionately impacted by increases to the minimum wage. Our point estimates suggest that a one dollar increase in the minimum wage leads to a 14 percent increase in the likelihood of exit for a 3.5-star restaurant (which is the median rating), but has no discernible impact for a 5-star restaurant (on a 1 to 5 star scale).Link

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Optimal Taxation and Insurance Using Machine Learning

Optimal Taxation and Insurance Using Machine Learning. Maximilian Kasy, April 10, 2017, Paper, “How should one use (quasi-)experimental evidence when choosing policies such as tax rates, health insurance copay, unemployment benefit levels, class sizes in schools, etc.? This paper suggests an approach based on maximizing posterior expected social welfare, combining insights from (i) optimal policy theory as developed in the field of public finance, and (ii) machine learning using Gaussian process priors. We provide explicit formulas for posterior expected social welfare and optimal policies in a wide class of policy problems.Link

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Concentrating on the Fall of the Labor Share

Concentrating on the Fall of the Labor Share. Lawrence Katz, April 2017, Paper, “In this paper, we discuss an explanation for the fall in share of labour in GDP based on the rise of “superstar firms.” If globalization or technological changes advantage the most productive firms in each industry, product market concentration will rise as industries become increasingly dominated by superstar firms with high profit margins and a low share of labor in firm value-added and sales. As the importance of superstar firms increases, the aggregate labour share will fall. This hypothesis suggests that sales will increasingly concentrate in a small number of firms and that industries where concentration rises most will have the largest declines in the labour share. We find support for these predictions aggregating up micro-data from the US Census 1982-2012.Link

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The Earnings of Undocumented Immigrants

The Earnings of Undocumented Immigrants. George Borjas, March 2017, Paper, “Over 11 million undocumented persons reside in the United States, and there has been a heated debate over the impact of legislative or executive efforts to regularize the status of this population. This paper examines the determinants of earnings for undocumented workers. Using newly developed methods that impute undocumented status for foreign-born persons sampled in microdata surveys, the study documents a number of findings. First, the age-earnings profile of undocumented workers lies far below that of legal immigrants and of native workers, and is almost perfectly flat during the prime working years.Link

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The Decline of Big-Bank Lending to Small Business: Dynamic Impacts on Local Credit and Labor Markets

The Decline of Big-Bank Lending to Small Business: Dynamic Impacts on Local Credit and Labor Markets. Samuel Hanson, Jeremy Stein, March 2017, Paper, “Small business lending by the four largest U.S. banks fell sharply relative to other banks beginning in 2008 and remained depressed through 2014. We explore the consequences of this credit supply shock, with a particular focus on the resulting dynamic adjustment process. Using a difference-indifference approach that compares counties where the Top 4 banks had a higher initial market share to counties where they had a smaller share, we find that the aggregate flow of small business credit fell and interest rates rose from 2006 to 2010 in high Top 4 counties. Economic activity also contracted in these affected counties: fewer businesses expanded employment, the unemployment rate rose, and wages fell. Moreover, the employment effects were concentrated in industries that are most reliant on external finance, such as manufacturing.Link

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