Found 457 article(s) in category 'Fiscal Policy'

How Japan and the US Can Reduce the Stress of Aging

How Japan and the US Can Reduce the Stress of Aging. Claudia Goldin, July 2016, Paper, “The Japanese are becoming older. Americans are also becoming older. Demographic stress in Japan, measured by the dependency ratio (DR), is currently about 0.64. In the immediate pre-WWII era it was even higher because Japan’s total fertility rate (TFR) was in the 4 to 5 range. As the TFR began to decline in the post-WWII era, the DR fell and hit a nadir of 0.44 in 1990. But further declining fertility and rising life expectancy caused the DR to shoot up after 1995.Link

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Can Paying Firms Quicker Affect Aggregate Employment?

Can Paying Firms Quicker Affect Aggregate Employment? Ramana Nanda, July 2016, Paper. “In 2011, the federal government accelerated payments to their small business contractors, spanning virtually every county and industry in the US. We study the impact of this reform on county-sector employment growth over the subsequent three years. Despite firms being paid just 15 days sooner, we find payroll increased 10 cents for each accelerated dollar, with two-thirds of the effect coming from an increase in new hires and the balance from an increase in earnings. Importantly, however, we document substantial crowding out of non-treated firms employment, particularly in counties with low rates of unemployment. Our results highlight an important channel through which financing constraints can be alleviated for small firms, but also emphasize the general-equilibrium effects of large-scale interventions, which can lead to a substantially lower net impact on aggregate outcomes …” Link



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Understanding and improving the one and three times GDP per capita cost-effectiveness thresholds

Understanding and improving the one and three times GDP per capita cost-effectiveness thresholds. James Robinson, June 18, 2016, Paper, “Researchers and policymakers have long been interested in developing simple decision rules to aid in determining whether an intervention is, or is not, cost-effective. In global health, interventions that impose costs per disability-adjusted life year averted less than three and one times gross domestic product per capita are often considered cost-effective and very cost-effective, respectively. This article explores the conceptual foundation and derivation of these thresholds. Its goal is to promote understanding of how these thresholds were derived and their implications, as well as to suggest options for improvement.Link

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Reducing Long Term Deficits

Reducing Long Term Deficits. Martin Feldstein, May 26, 2016, Paper. “The most serious long-term challenge for the economic policy of the US Federal government is the explosive growth of the national debt that will occur unless there are specific policy actions. The ratio of the federal government debt to the GDP has doubled in the past decade from a level of less than 40 percent that prevailed for many years before the recent recession to 75 percent of GDP now. According to the most recent report by the Congressional Budget Office (2016), the debt ratio is already beginning to rise. The CBO projects that with current policies the debt to GDP ratio will reach 86 percent within ten years and the federal debt will be on its way to 155 percent of GDP by the year 2045. I suspect that even this disturbing forecast is too optimistic because a debt trajectory like that is likely to cause portfolio investors in the United States and elsewhereto conclude that the U.S. government has lost control of its fiscal policy …” Link

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Connectedness and Contagion: Protecting the Financial System from Panics

Connectedness and Contagion: Protecting the Financial System from Panics. Hal Scott, May 2016, Book. “The Dodd–Frank Act of 2010 was intended to reform financial policies in order to prevent another massive crisis such as the financial meltdown of 2008. Dodd–Frank is largely premised on the diagnosis that connectedness was the major problem in that crisis—that is, that financial institutions were overexposed to one another, resulting in a possible chain reaction of failures. In this book, Hal Scott argues that it is not connectedness but contagion that is the most significant element of systemic risk facing the financial system. Contagion is an indiscriminate run by short-term creditors of financial institutions that can render otherwise solvent institutions insolvent. It poses a serious risk because, as Scott explains, our financial system still depends on approximately $7.4 to $8.2 trillion of runnable and uninsured short-term liabilities, 60 percent of which are held by nonbanks.Link

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Rediscovering Fiscal Policy at the G7

Rediscovering Fiscal Policy at the G7. Jeffrey Frankel, May 24, 2016, Opinion. “As G7 leaders convene in Ise-Shima, Japan, the global economy’s fragility is a top concern. But instead of focusing on currency wars, the leaders of the major developed economies should be discussing fiscal policy, which under current conditions would be a more powerful tool than monetary policy for boosting economic activity. After all, today, unlike in normal times, the effects of fiscal policy would not be limited by too-high interest rates, inadequate private demand, strict capacity constraints, or excessive inflation.Link

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Microeconomics of Competitiveness Financial Services Cluster in Lima – Final Report

Microeconomics of Competitiveness Financial Services Cluster in Lima – Final Report. Laura Alfaro, May 6, 2016, Paper. “Since gaining independence from the Spanish Empire in 1824, Peru has had a long history of dictatorships and military coups. Only in the 1980s did the country achieve a peacefully elected democracy. Since that time, in spite of pressure from fringe, armed political groups like the “Shining Path”, the country has managed thirty-six years (and counting) of stable democracy. The country today exists as a constitutional republic with a unicameral legislature, and there are roughly eight active political parties at the national stage1 (parties coalesce and diverge as coalitions form and break apart from vote to vote).Link

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The Market for Creampuffs: Big Data and the Transformation of the Welfare State

The Market for Creampuffs: Big Data and the Transformation of the Welfare State. Torben Iversen, April 2016, Paper. “The literature on the welfare state assumes, often implicitly but almost universally, that social insurance can or will be provided through the state. This assumption is based on economic models of insurance that show the propensity for market failure when information is limited and privately held. With the data revolution this is no longer a satisfactory approach, and this paper asks what happens when information rises and can be credibly shared with insures. Our model shows that Big Data alters the politics of social insurance by increasing polarization over the level and cost-sharing of public provision, and sometimes by creating majorities for a shift towards segmented and inegalitarian private markets (a shift that is conditioned by government partisanship).Link

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Financing High-Potential Entrepreneurship

Financing High-Potential Entrepreneurship. Ramana Nanda, April 2016, Paper. “Entrepreneurship is essential to job creation and to productivity growth and therefore is an important matter for government policy. However, policymakers face a difficult challenge because successful growth for a few firms—which cannot easily be identified in advance—is accompanied by widespread failure for most other new firms. Predicting which firms will fail and which will succeed is nearly impossible. Instead of futilely trying to pick winners, governments can play a useful role in facilitating the growth of the most promising firms by setting the conditions for efficient trial-and-error experimentation across firms.Link

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