Found 461 article(s) in category 'Fiscal Policy'

Trump’s Fiscal Follies

Trump’s Fiscal Follies. Jeffrey Frankel, August 16, 2016, Opinion, “This year’s presidential election campaign in the United States is certainly unique. Donald Trump has shaken up the way a campaign is run, how a nominee communicates with voters, and the Republican Party’s platform, with many of his positions deviating from GOP tradition. But, on tax policy, Trump has toed the party line – and that’s not a good thing.Link

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Harvard’s Martin Feldstein: Labor Market Remains Tight

Harvard’s Martin Feldstein: Labor Market Remains Tight. Martin Feldstein, August 4, 2016, Opinion, “Former Reagan Economic Advisor and current George F. Baker Professor of Economics at Harvard University Martin Feldstein weighed in on concerns about the deficit and the state of the U.S. economy and job market.” Link

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Understanding the Socioeconomic Gradient in Disability Insurance Receipt

Understanding the Socioeconomic Gradient in Disability Insurance Receipt. David Cutler, August 3, 2016, Paper, “There is a well-known socioeconomic gradient in disability insurance receipt. As Figure 1 shows, 9.0% of people aged 50-52 with a high school degree or less receive Social Security Disability Insurance or Supplemental Security Insurance, compared to 4.3% of those with some college or more.  As people age, the gap between the more and less educated expands. Between the low 50s and the low 60s, SSDI/SSI receipt rises by 6.2 percentage points among the less educated, compared to only 2.4 percentage points among the better educated. The result is that one in six people with a high school degree or less is receiving SSDI/SSI by age 62, compared to one in fifteen people with some college education. Understanding why disability insurance receipt is so tilted to the less educated is key to evaluating the economic importance of disability insurance as well as forecasting future trends.Link

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Transnational Social Protection: Setting the Agenda

Transnational Social Protection: Setting the Agenda, Jocelyn Viterna, August 2016, Paper, “In todays’ world, more than 220 million people live in a country that is not their own.  Nevertheless, the provision of social welfare is primarily carried out by nations. How are people on the move protected and provided for in the contemporary global context? Have institutional sources of social welfare begun to cross borders to meet the needs of individuals who live transnational lives? This introductory paper proposes a transnational social protection (TSP) research agenda designed to map the kinds of protections that exist for people on the move, determine how these protections travel across borders, and analyze variations in access to these protections. The paper defines TSP; introduces the heuristic tool of a “resource environment” to map and analyze variations in TSP over time, through space, and across individuals; and provides empirical examples demonstrating the centrality of TSP for scholars of states, social welfare, development, and migration.Link

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How Japan and the US Can Reduce the Stress of Aging

How Japan and the US Can Reduce the Stress of Aging. Claudia Goldin, July 2016, Paper, “The Japanese are becoming older. Americans are also becoming older. Demographic stress in Japan, measured by the dependency ratio (DR), is currently about 0.64. In the immediate pre-WWII era it was even higher because Japan’s total fertility rate (TFR) was in the 4 to 5 range. As the TFR began to decline in the post-WWII era, the DR fell and hit a nadir of 0.44 in 1990. But further declining fertility and rising life expectancy caused the DR to shoot up after 1995.Link

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Can Paying Firms Quicker Affect Aggregate Employment?

Can Paying Firms Quicker Affect Aggregate Employment? Ramana Nanda, July 2016, Paper. “In 2011, the federal government accelerated payments to their small business contractors, spanning virtually every county and industry in the US. We study the impact of this reform on county-sector employment growth over the subsequent three years. Despite firms being paid just 15 days sooner, we find payroll increased 10 cents for each accelerated dollar, with two-thirds of the effect coming from an increase in new hires and the balance from an increase in earnings. Importantly, however, we document substantial crowding out of non-treated firms employment, particularly in counties with low rates of unemployment. Our results highlight an important channel through which financing constraints can be alleviated for small firms, but also emphasize the general-equilibrium effects of large-scale interventions, which can lead to a substantially lower net impact on aggregate outcomes …” Link



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Understanding and improving the one and three times GDP per capita cost-effectiveness thresholds

Understanding and improving the one and three times GDP per capita cost-effectiveness thresholds. James Robinson, June 18, 2016, Paper, “Researchers and policymakers have long been interested in developing simple decision rules to aid in determining whether an intervention is, or is not, cost-effective. In global health, interventions that impose costs per disability-adjusted life year averted less than three and one times gross domestic product per capita are often considered cost-effective and very cost-effective, respectively. This article explores the conceptual foundation and derivation of these thresholds. Its goal is to promote understanding of how these thresholds were derived and their implications, as well as to suggest options for improvement.Link

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Reducing Long Term Deficits

Reducing Long Term Deficits. Martin Feldstein, May 26, 2016, Paper. “The most serious long-term challenge for the economic policy of the US Federal government is the explosive growth of the national debt that will occur unless there are specific policy actions. The ratio of the federal government debt to the GDP has doubled in the past decade from a level of less than 40 percent that prevailed for many years before the recent recession to 75 percent of GDP now. According to the most recent report by the Congressional Budget Office (2016), the debt ratio is already beginning to rise. The CBO projects that with current policies the debt to GDP ratio will reach 86 percent within ten years and the federal debt will be on its way to 155 percent of GDP by the year 2045. I suspect that even this disturbing forecast is too optimistic because a debt trajectory like that is likely to cause portfolio investors in the United States and elsewhereto conclude that the U.S. government has lost control of its fiscal policy …” Link

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Connectedness and Contagion: Protecting the Financial System from Panics

Connectedness and Contagion: Protecting the Financial System from Panics. Hal Scott, May 2016, Book. “The Dodd–Frank Act of 2010 was intended to reform financial policies in order to prevent another massive crisis such as the financial meltdown of 2008. Dodd–Frank is largely premised on the diagnosis that connectedness was the major problem in that crisis—that is, that financial institutions were overexposed to one another, resulting in a possible chain reaction of failures. In this book, Hal Scott argues that it is not connectedness but contagion that is the most significant element of systemic risk facing the financial system. Contagion is an indiscriminate run by short-term creditors of financial institutions that can render otherwise solvent institutions insolvent. It poses a serious risk because, as Scott explains, our financial system still depends on approximately $7.4 to $8.2 trillion of runnable and uninsured short-term liabilities, 60 percent of which are held by nonbanks.Link

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