Found 413 article(s) in category 'Q3: Financial Crisis?'

Weathering the Great Recession: Variation in Employment Responses by Establishments and Countries

Weathering the Great Recession: Variation in Employment Responses by Establishments and Countries. Richard Freeman, July 2016, Paper, “This paper finds that US employment changed differently relative to output in the Great Recession and recovery than in most other advanced countries or in the US in earlier recessions. Instead of hoarding labor, US firms reduced employment proportionately more than output in the Great Recession, with establishments that survived the downturn contracting jobs massively. Diverging from the aggregate pattern, US manufacturers reduced employment less than output while the elasticity of employment to gross output varied widely among establishments. In the recovery, growth of employment was dominated by job creation in new establishments. The variegated responses of employment to output challenges extant models of how enterprises adjust employment over the business cycle.” Link

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Where the Fed Will Be When the Next Downturn Comes

Where the Fed Will Be When the Next Downturn Comes. Martin Feldstein, July 5, 2016, Opinion, “Testifying before the Senate on June 21, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said the chances of the U.S. economy sliding into recession this year are “quite low.” I agree. But the Fed still faces the difficult problem of what to do when the next downturn occurs if interest rates are still extremely low.Link

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The Economic Risks of an Outbreak of Brexit-Style Votes

The Economic Risks of an Outbreak of Brexit-Style Votes. Kenneth Rogoff, July 2016, Opinion, “Stock market fears that a Leave vote would lead to a sharp drop in global growth appear to have calmed. The conclusion now seems to be that Brexit might be bad for the UK but for the rest of the world it is close to a non-event.  Really? With the eurozone still struggling to coalesce around a strategy to preserve the currency union, and populist pressures building everywhere, it is highly likely that similar episodes will erupt , and disrupt, on the continent.Link

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Brexit’s Blow To Globalization

Brexit’s Blow To Globalization. Carmen Reinhart, June 29. 2016, Opinion. “The United Kingdom’s Brexit referendum has shaken equity and financial markets around the world. As in prior episodes of contagious financial turmoil, the victory of the “Leave” vote sent skittish global investors toward the usual safe havens. US Treasury bonds rose, and the dollar, Swiss franc, and yen appreciated, most markedly against sterling.Link

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Lawrence Summers on Brexit: A wakeup call for elites

Lawrence Summers on Brexit: A wakeup call for elites. Lawrence Summers, June 24, 2016, Audio. “There’s a context slice of the Brexit story that we need to get to before the day is done — the place that Thursday’s vote has in the global economy, and in history, really. Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers wrote a quick post last night for The Washington Post. We got him on his cell phone Friday to talk more about it:  What do the events of last night mean for globalism in the long run?  I think this is probably the worst self-inflicted policy wound that a country has done since the Second World War. My hope is that this will be a wake up call for elites everywhere, on the need to develop a responsible nationalism. But the best way forward is not denial, is not railing against the folly of the electorate, it’s seeking to design an approach, approaches to economic policy that hear the anger that’s being expressed in this vote.Link

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Britain’s Democratic Failure

Britain’s Democratic Failure. Kenneth Rogoff, June 24, 2016, Opinion. “The real lunacy of the United Kingdom’s vote to leave the European Union was not that British leaders dared to ask their populace to weigh the benefits of membership against the immigration pressures it presents. Rather, it was the absurdly low bar for exit, requiring only a simple majority. Given voter turnout of 70%, this meant that the leave campaign won with only 36% of eligible voters backing it.Link

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Bank Stress Tests Won’t Save Us From Financial Crisis

Bank Stress Tests Won’t Save Us From Financial Crisis. Hal Scott, June 23, 2016, Video. “It’s a big week for Wall Street. Minutes before polls close in the U.K. on the Brexit vote Thursday, the Fed is set to release its first round of stress-test results, followed by a second round of results next Wednesday. The tests are used to determine whether or not the largest banks could weather a major crisis, such as Britain leaving the EU, and whether they can boost their dividend payout to shareholders.Link

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One Economic Sickness, Five Diagnoses

One Economic Sickness, Five Diagnoses. N. Gregory Mankiw, June 17, 2016, Opinion. “Economists, like physicians, sometimes confront a patient with an obvious problem but no obvious diagnosis. That is precisely the situation we face right now. Let’s start with the problem. There is no simple way to gauge an economy’s health. But if you had to choose just one statistic, it would be gross domestic product. Real G.D.P. measures the total income produced within an economy, adjusted for the overall level of prices.Link

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The Dark Shadow

The Dark Shadow. Amartya Sen, June 14, 2016, Opinion. “It cannot be said that the European ­Union is doing particularly well at this time. Its economic performance has been mostly terrible, with high unemployment and low economic expansion, and the political union itself is showing many signs of fragility. It is not hard to understand the temptation of many in Britain to call it a day and “go home”. And yet it would be a huge mistake for Britain to leave the EU. The losses would be great, and the gains quite puny. And the “home” to go back to no longer exists in the way it did when Britannia ruled the waves.Link

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