Found 413 article(s) in category 'Q3: Financial Crisis?'

Have big banks gotten safer?

Have big banks gotten safer? Lawrence Summers, September 15, 2016, Paper, “Since the financial crisis, there have been major changes in the regulation of large financial institutions directed at reducing their risk. Measures of regulatory capital have substantially increased; leverage ratios have been reduced; and stress testing has sought to further assure safety by raising levels of capital and reducing risk taking. Standard financial theories would predict that such changes would lead to substantial declines in financial market measures of risk. For major institutions in the United States and around the world and midsized institutions in the United States, we test this proposition using information on stock price volatility, option-based estimates of future volatility, beta, credit default swaps, earnings-price ratios, and preferred stock yields.Link

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The Fed thinks it can fight the next recession. It shouldn’t be so sure.

The Fed thinks it can fight the next recession. It shouldn’t be so sure. Lawrence Summers, September 8, 2016, Opinion, “As I argued in the first blog post in this series last week, I was disappointed in what came out of The Federal Reserve’s annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyo., for three reasons. The first reason, as I wrote in that post, was that the Federal Reserve should have signaled a desire to exceed its 2 percent inflation target during periods of protracted recovery and low unemployment, and in this context to signal that a rate increase was off the table for September and quite likely the rest of the year. Friday’s employment report further strengthens the case for delay both by adding to the evidence on the absence of inflation pressures and by suggesting a less robust economy than most expected.Link

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Can analysts assess fundamental risk and valuation uncertainty? An empirical analysis of scenario-based value estimates

Can analysts assess fundamental risk and valuation uncertainty? An empirical analysis of scenario-based value estimates. Suraj Srinivasan, September 2016, Paper, “We use a data set of sell-side analysts’ scenario-based equity valuation estimates to examine whether analysts can assess the state-contingent risk surrounding a firm’s fundamental value. We find that the spread in analysts’ scenario-based valuations captures the riskiness of operations and predicts the absolute magnitude of long-run valuation errors and future changes in firm fundamentals. We also show that analysts’ assessment of fundamental risk and its predictive ability systematically improved after the financial crisis, consistent with the macroeconomic shock raising analysts’ awareness of firms’ systematic risk exposures.Link

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Problems Unsolved and a Nation Divided

Problems Unsolved and a Nation Divided.  Michael Porter, Jan Rivkin, and Mihir Desai, September 2016, Paper, “America retains and enjoys many strengths. However, various economic indicators show that the U.S. economy has failed to deliver strong growth and shared prosperity for nearly two decades. These structural issues pre-date the Great Recession and are compounded by political paralysis. This report calls for a national economic strategy for America and proposes federal policy priorities that can form the core of such a strategy. Further, the report highlights corporate and personal tax reform as a promising first step in the strategy. Finally, the report warns that it is impossible to solve the issues besetting the U.S. economy and bring prosperity to millions of Americans if the United States remains mired in crippling political gridlock and vicious rhetoric.Link

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The Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet as a Financial-Stability Tool

The Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet as a Financial-Stability Tool. Robin Greenwood, Samuel Hanson, Jeremy Stein, September 2016, Paper, “In this paper, we argue that the Federal Reserve should use its balance sheet to help reduce a key threat to financial stability: the tendency for private-sector financial intermediaries to engage in excessive amounts of maturity transformation—i.e. to finance risky assets using dangerously large volumes of runnable short-term liabilities. Specifically, we make the case that the Fed can complement its regulatory efforts on the financial-stability front by maintaining a relatively large balance sheet, even when policy rates have moved well away from the zero lower bound (ZLB). In so doing, it can help ensure that there is an ample supply of government-provided safe shortterm claims—e.g. interest-bearing reserves and reverse repurchase agreements.Link

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What We Need to do to Get Out of this Economic Malaise

What We Need to do to Get Out of this Economic Malaise. Lawrence Summers, August 18, 2016, Opinion, “John Williams has written the most thoughtful piece on monetary policy that has come out of the Federal Reserve in a long time. He recognizes more explicitly than others that, the neutral interest rate, is now very low and quite probably will remain very low for a long time to come.  As he recognizes, this the essence of the secular stagnation concern that I and others have been expressing for the past three years.Link

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Does Aggregated Returns Disclosure Increase Portfolio Risk Taking?

Does Aggregated Returns Disclosure Increase Portfolio Risk Taking? David Laibson, Brigitte Madrian, August 11, 2016, Paper, “Many experiments have found that participants take more investment risk if they see returns less frequently, see portfolio-level returns (rather than each individual asset’s returns), or see long-horizon (rather than one-year) historical return distributions. In contrast, we find that such information aggregation treatments do not affect total equity investment when we make the investment environment more realistic than in prior experiments. Previously documented aggregation effects are not robust to changes in the risky asset’s return distribution or the introduction of a multi-day delay between portfolio choice and return realization.Link

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Harvard’s Martin Feldstein: Labor Market Remains Tight

Harvard’s Martin Feldstein: Labor Market Remains Tight. Martin Feldstein, August 4, 2016, Opinion, “Former Reagan Economic Advisor and current George F. Baker Professor of Economics at Harvard University Martin Feldstein weighed in on concerns about the deficit and the state of the U.S. economy and job market.” Link

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Varieties of Capitalism in Light of the Euro Crisis

Varieties of Capitalism in Light of the Euro Crisis. Peter Hall, August 2016, Paper, “The Euro crisis began, at least in symbolic terms, on November 5, 2009 when a new Prime Minister announced that the Greek budget deficit would be 12.7 percent of GDP, more than three times the amount projected for that year by the outgoing government. This sparked a crisis of confidence in sovereign debt and European banks that forced Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Cyprus into torturous negotiations with the European Union, followed by bail-out programs that imposed various combinations of fiscal austerity and structural reform on them. Almost seven years later, the effects of the crisis are still palpable. The Greek economy has lost a quarter of its value; levels of unemployment are close to 20 percent in parts of southern Europe; and the average level of economic activity in the Eurozone as a whole has only now regained its level before the global financial crisis of 2008-09.Link

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