Found 401 article(s) in category 'Q3: Financial Crisis?'

The Economic Risks of an Outbreak of Brexit-Style Votes

The Economic Risks of an Outbreak of Brexit-Style Votes. Kenneth Rogoff, July 2016, Opinion, “Stock market fears that a Leave vote would lead to a sharp drop in global growth appear to have calmed. The conclusion now seems to be that Brexit might be bad for the UK but for the rest of the world it is close to a non-event.  Really? With the eurozone still struggling to coalesce around a strategy to preserve the currency union, and populist pressures building everywhere, it is highly likely that similar episodes will erupt , and disrupt, on the continent.Link

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Brexit’s Blow To Globalization

Brexit’s Blow To Globalization. Carmen Reinhart, June 29. 2016, Opinion. “The United Kingdom’s Brexit referendum has shaken equity and financial markets around the world. As in prior episodes of contagious financial turmoil, the victory of the “Leave” vote sent skittish global investors toward the usual safe havens. US Treasury bonds rose, and the dollar, Swiss franc, and yen appreciated, most markedly against sterling.Link

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Lawrence Summers on Brexit: A wakeup call for elites

Lawrence Summers on Brexit: A wakeup call for elites. Lawrence Summers, June 24, 2016, Audio. “There’s a context slice of the Brexit story that we need to get to before the day is done — the place that Thursday’s vote has in the global economy, and in history, really. Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers wrote a quick post last night for The Washington Post. We got him on his cell phone Friday to talk more about it:  What do the events of last night mean for globalism in the long run?  I think this is probably the worst self-inflicted policy wound that a country has done since the Second World War. My hope is that this will be a wake up call for elites everywhere, on the need to develop a responsible nationalism. But the best way forward is not denial, is not railing against the folly of the electorate, it’s seeking to design an approach, approaches to economic policy that hear the anger that’s being expressed in this vote.Link

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Britain’s Democratic Failure

Britain’s Democratic Failure. Kenneth Rogoff, June 24, 2016, Opinion. “The real lunacy of the United Kingdom’s vote to leave the European Union was not that British leaders dared to ask their populace to weigh the benefits of membership against the immigration pressures it presents. Rather, it was the absurdly low bar for exit, requiring only a simple majority. Given voter turnout of 70%, this meant that the leave campaign won with only 36% of eligible voters backing it.Link

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Bank Stress Tests Won’t Save Us From Financial Crisis

Bank Stress Tests Won’t Save Us From Financial Crisis. Hal Scott, June 23, 2016, Video. “It’s a big week for Wall Street. Minutes before polls close in the U.K. on the Brexit vote Thursday, the Fed is set to release its first round of stress-test results, followed by a second round of results next Wednesday. The tests are used to determine whether or not the largest banks could weather a major crisis, such as Britain leaving the EU, and whether they can boost their dividend payout to shareholders.Link

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One Economic Sickness, Five Diagnoses

One Economic Sickness, Five Diagnoses. N. Gregory Mankiw, June 17, 2016, Opinion. “Economists, like physicians, sometimes confront a patient with an obvious problem but no obvious diagnosis. That is precisely the situation we face right now. Let’s start with the problem. There is no simple way to gauge an economy’s health. But if you had to choose just one statistic, it would be gross domestic product. Real G.D.P. measures the total income produced within an economy, adjusted for the overall level of prices.Link

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The Dark Shadow

The Dark Shadow. Amartya Sen, June 14, 2016, Opinion. “It cannot be said that the European ­Union is doing particularly well at this time. Its economic performance has been mostly terrible, with high unemployment and low economic expansion, and the political union itself is showing many signs of fragility. It is not hard to understand the temptation of many in Britain to call it a day and “go home”. And yet it would be a huge mistake for Britain to leave the EU. The losses would be great, and the gains quite puny. And the “home” to go back to no longer exists in the way it did when Britannia ruled the waves.Link

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The Volcker Rule as structural law: implications for cost-benefit analysis and administrative law

The Volcker Rule as structural law: implications for cost-benefit analysis and administrative law. John Coates, 2016, Paper. “The Volcker rule, a key part of Congress’s response to the financial crisis, is best understood as a “structural law,” a traditional Anglo-American technique for governance of hybrid public-private institutions such as banks and central banks. The tradition extends much farther back in time than the Glass-Steagall Act, to which the Volcker Rule has been unfavorably (but unfairly) compared. The goals of the Volcker Rule are complex and ambitious, and not limited to reducing risk directly, but include reshaping banks’ organizational cultures. Another body of structural laws, part of the core of administrative law, attempts to restrain and discipline regulatory agencies, through process requirements such as cost-benefit analysis (CBA). Could the Volcker rule be the subject of reliable, precise, quantified CBA? Given the nature of the Volcker rule as structural law, its ambitions, and the current capacities of CBA, the answer is clearly “no,” as it would require regulators to anticipate, in advance of data, private market behavior in response to novel activity constraints.Link

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The Fusion of Civilizations: The Case for Global Optimism

The Fusion of Civilizations: The Case for Global Optimism. Lawrence Summers, 2016, Paper. “The mood of much of the world is grim these days. Turmoil in the Middle East, causing hundreds of thousands of deaths and millions of refugees; random terrorist attacks across the globe; geopolitical tensions in eastern Europe and Asia; the end of the commodity supercycle; slowing growth in China; and economic stagnation in many countries-all have combined to feed a deep pessimism about the present and, worse, the future. Historians looking back on this age from the vantage point of later generations, however, are likely to be puzzled by the widespread contemporary feelings of gloom and doom …” Link

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