Found 418 article(s) in category 'Q3: Financial Crisis?'

Italy Has Faced a Long, Difficult Time

Italy Has Faced a Long, Difficult Time. Kenneth Rogoff, December 1, 2016, Video, “In today’s “Morning Must Read,” Bloomberg’s Tom Keene and Francine Lacqua highlight comments on this weekend’s Italian referendum. They speak with Harvard University Professor of Economics Kenneth Rogoff on “Bloomberg Surveillance.”Link

Tags: , , , , , , ,

The Ax Files – Larry Summers

The Ax Files – Larry Summers. Lawrence Summers, November 21, 2016, Audio, “Larry Summers, U.S. economist and former Treasury Secretary, talks with David Axelrod about growing up in a family of renowned economists, shares his view of what did and did not cause the financial crisis in 2008, and forecasts the economic implications of Donald Trump’s policy proposals.Link

Tags: , , ,

Bubbles for Fama

Bubbles for Fama. Robin Greenwood, Andrei Shleifer, November 2016, Paper, “We evaluate Eugene Fama’s claim that stock prices do not exhibit price bubbles. Based on US industry returns 1926-2014 and international sector returns 1986-2014, we present four findings: (1) Fama is correct in that a sharp price increase of an industry portfolio does not, on average, predict unusually low returns going forward; (2) such sharp price increases do predict a substantially heightened probability of a crash; (3) attributes of the price run-up, including volatility, issuance, book-to-market ratio, market P/E ratio and the price path of the run-up can all help forecast an eventual crash; and (4) some of these characteristics can help investors earn superior returns by timing the bubble. Results hold similarly in US and international samples.Link

Tags: , , , ,

The Rise of Risky Derivatives: Chief Risk Officers, CEOs, and Fund Managers

The Rise of Risky Derivatives: Chief Risk Officers, CEOs, and Fund Managers. Frank Dobbin, November 18, 2016, Paper, “At turn of the century, regulators introduced policies to control bank risk-taking. Many banks appointed chief risk officers (CROs), yet bank holdings of new, complex and untested financial derivatives subsequently soared. Institutionalists suggest that firms respond to regulations by appointing compliance experts, who sometimes exaggerate legal requirements. We propose a more nuanced institutional theory of expert interests, and highlight effects of other powerful groups. Rather than overstating what the law required, risk experts sought to cement their role in shareholder-value management with compliance strategies that they also marketed as maximizing risk-adjusted returns.Link

Tags: , , , ,

Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Larry Summers On The Economy, Election

Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Larry Summers On The Economy, Election. Lawrence Summers, November 11, 2016, Audio, “Here & Now’s Jeremy Hobson talks with Larry Summers (@LHSummers), former U.S. Treasury secretary and president emeritus of Harvard University, about the economic outlook for Donald Trump’s presidency and the global financial reaction to the election.Link

Tags: , , , , , ,

Crises in Economic Thought, Secular Stagnation, and Future Economic  Research 

Crises in Economic Thought, Secular Stagnation, and Future Economic Research. Lawrence Summers, 2016, Paper, “I am very flattered by the invitation to be the dinner speaker at this conference—now celebrating its 30th anniversary. I was proud to coauthor the lead article in the inaugural volume of this series on Hysteresis and European Unemployment with Olivier Blanchard— (Blanchard and Summers 1986). Less successful in its original incarnation was a paper I presented a couple of years later on “The Scientific Illusion in Empirical Macroeconomics” that did not get published in this forum but was published a few years later as Summers (1991). In ways I certainly did not expect, both these papers contain ideas that I believe are relevant to current policy dilemmas.Link

Tags: , , ,

What Could Go Wrong in America?

What Could Go Wrong in America? Martin Feldstein, October 16, 2016, Opinion, “Although the United States economy is in good shape – with essentially full employment and an inflation rate close to 2% – a world of uncertainty makes it worthwhile to consider what could go wrong in the year ahead. After all, if the US economy runs into serious trouble, there will be adverse consequences for Europe, Japan, and many other countries.Link

Tags: , , , ,

Hysteresis and Fiscal Policy During the Global Crisis

Hysteresis and Fiscal Policy During the Global Crisis. Lawrence Summers, October 12, 2016, Paper, “Conventional wisdom on supply and demand suggests that demand shocks are cyclical or transitory, and that only technology shocks are responsible for trend changes. This column argues that cyclical events can have permanent effects on demand, and therefore GDP. It is time for policymakers to start considering the possibility of hysteresis seriously.Link

Tags: , , ,

Ability to Fight Recession a Matter of Serious Concern

Ability to Fight Recession a Matter of Serious Concern. Lawrence Summers, October 10, 2016, Video, “The concern about low interest rates and the ability to fight off a recession should be keeping central banks up at night, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers told CNBC on Monday. That’s because interest rates typically come down 500 basis points to contain a recession, and according to market pricing, there’s not going to be 500 basis points of room anytime soon, he said in an interview with “Closing Bell.”Link

Tags: , , , ,