Found 413 article(s) in category 'Q3: Financial Crisis?'

Summers Says Markets Underestimating Risks of Trump Presidency

Summers Says Markets Underestimating Risks of Trump Presidency. Lawrence Summers, January 3, 2017, Video, “Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said investors are being far too sanguine about the risks associated with Donald Trump’s incoming administration. The Harvard professor, a Democrat who was Treasury chief under Bill Clinton, cited the possibility of protectionist measures by the U.S. as well as changes to foreign policy and domestic social policy as issues that are creating “extraordinary uncertainty.”” Link

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Understanding the Political Economy of the Eurozone Crisis: A Political Scientist’s Guide

Understanding the political economy of the Eurozone crisis: A Political Scientist’s Guide. Jeffry Frieden, 2017, Paper, “The Eurozone crisis constitutes a grave challenge to European integration. This essay presents an overview of the causes of the crisis, and analyzes why has it been so difficult to resolve. It focuses on how responses to the crisis were shaped by distributive conflicts both among and within countries. On the international level, debtor and creditor countries have fought over the distribution of responsibility for the accumulated debt; countries with current account surpluses and deficits have fought over who should implement the policies necessary to reduce the current account imbalances.Link

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Real Estate Bubbles and Urban Development

Real Estate Bubbles and Urban Development. Edward Glaeser, December 2016, Paper, “Why are real estate bubbles so common? Can these bubbles actually do some good? Real estate booms have regularly occurred throughout the world leaving painful busts and financial crises in their wake. This paper suggests that real estate is a natural investment for more passive debt investors, including banks, because real estate’s flexibility makes it better collateral than specifically built production facilities. Passive capital’s preference for real estate will be particularly strong when agency problems bedevil equity investments. Consequently, passive capital may flow disproportionately into real estate and the errors of passive capital can generate real estate bubbles.Link

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Italy Has Faced a Long, Difficult Time

Italy Has Faced a Long, Difficult Time. Kenneth Rogoff, December 1, 2016, Video, “In today’s “Morning Must Read,” Bloomberg’s Tom Keene and Francine Lacqua highlight comments on this weekend’s Italian referendum. They speak with Harvard University Professor of Economics Kenneth Rogoff on “Bloomberg Surveillance.”Link

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The Ax Files – Larry Summers

The Ax Files – Larry Summers. Lawrence Summers, November 21, 2016, Audio, “Larry Summers, U.S. economist and former Treasury Secretary, talks with David Axelrod about growing up in a family of renowned economists, shares his view of what did and did not cause the financial crisis in 2008, and forecasts the economic implications of Donald Trump’s policy proposals.Link

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Bubbles for Fama

Bubbles for Fama. Robin Greenwood, Andrei Shleifer, November 2016, Paper, “We evaluate Eugene Fama’s claim that stock prices do not exhibit price bubbles. Based on US industry returns 1926-2014 and international sector returns 1986-2014, we present four findings: (1) Fama is correct in that a sharp price increase of an industry portfolio does not, on average, predict unusually low returns going forward; (2) such sharp price increases do predict a substantially heightened probability of a crash; (3) attributes of the price run-up, including volatility, issuance, book-to-market ratio, market P/E ratio and the price path of the run-up can all help forecast an eventual crash; and (4) some of these characteristics can help investors earn superior returns by timing the bubble. Results hold similarly in US and international samples.Link

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The Rise of Risky Derivatives: Chief Risk Officers, CEOs, and Fund Managers

The Rise of Risky Derivatives: Chief Risk Officers, CEOs, and Fund Managers. Frank Dobbin, November 18, 2016, Paper, “At turn of the century, regulators introduced policies to control bank risk-taking. Many banks appointed chief risk officers (CROs), yet bank holdings of new, complex and untested financial derivatives subsequently soared. Institutionalists suggest that firms respond to regulations by appointing compliance experts, who sometimes exaggerate legal requirements. We propose a more nuanced institutional theory of expert interests, and highlight effects of other powerful groups. Rather than overstating what the law required, risk experts sought to cement their role in shareholder-value management with compliance strategies that they also marketed as maximizing risk-adjusted returns.Link

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Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Larry Summers On The Economy, Election

Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Larry Summers On The Economy, Election. Lawrence Summers, November 11, 2016, Audio, “Here & Now’s Jeremy Hobson talks with Larry Summers (@LHSummers), former U.S. Treasury secretary and president emeritus of Harvard University, about the economic outlook for Donald Trump’s presidency and the global financial reaction to the election.Link

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