Found 418 article(s) in category 'Q3: Financial Crisis?'

HOW DO WE PREVENT THE NEXT FINANCIAL CRISIS?

The posts collected here explore the causes of the global financial crisis and its short- and long-term consequences. They include a multitude of proposals for preventing and mitigating financial crises in the future.

The Fear Factor in Today’s Interest Rates

The Fear Factor in Today’s Interest Rates. Carmen Reinhart, September 23, 2017, Opinion, “Atlantic-hugging policymakers and pundits, buffered by a continent and a large ocean, may not fully appreciate the significant effect on global financial markets that the threat posed by North Korea has had in recent months. But competition for safe assets has clearly heated up.Link

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Mihir Desai on “The Wisdom of Finance”

Mihir Desai on “The Wisdom of Finance”. Mihir Desai, September 12, 2017, Video, “In 1688, essayist Josef de la Vega described finance as both “the fairest and most deceitful business…the noblest and the most infamous in the world, the finest and most vulgar on earth.” The characterization of finance as deceitful, infamous and vulgar still rings true today – particularly in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. But, what happened to the fairest noblest, and finest profession that de la Vega saw? De la Vega hit on an essential truth that has been forgotten: finance can be just as principled, life-affirming and worthy as it can be fraught with questionable practices. Today, finance is shrouded in mystery for outsiders, while many insiders are uneasy with the disrepute of their profession. How can finance become more accessible and also recover its nobility?Link

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The Slow Recovery in Output after 2009

The Slow Recovery in Output after 2009. James Stock, 2017, Paper, “The U.S. economy has been expanding slowly since the recession trough in 2009. Though unemployment has declined at about the same rate as in previous recoveries, output has grown much more slowly than in the past. We explore explanations for the shortfall in output growth, using a quantitative decomposition based on growth economics. Two components of the decomposition stand out: slow growth in productivity, and a growing shortfall of labor-force participation relative to its demographic determinants. The slow growth in both components predated the recession. Our analysis gives a full treatment to cyclical effects.Link

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Odiousness Ratings for Public Debt

Odiousness Ratings for Public Debt. Ricardo Hausmann, August 30, 2017, Opinion, “Well-functioning markets should have shut down the Venezuelan regime’s access to finance long before US President Donald Trump did. The fact that they didn’t not only shocked the moral sentiments of many, but also revealed a fundamental defect in sovereign debt markets’ institutional architecture.Link

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The Fed’s Next Big Set of Challenges

The Fed’s Next Big Set of Challenges. Lawrence Summers, August 25, 2017, Opinion, “I will not be attending Jackson Hole this year but I will be thinking about some of the issues under discussion. As I have written recently, I think the period going forward will be more challenging for central banks than the preceding few years. I will sleep best at night if Janet Yellen is reappointed.Link

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Dealing with Monetary Paralysis at the Zero Bound

Dealing with Monetary Paralysis at the Zero Bound. Kenneth Rogoff, Summer 2017, Paper, “Recently, the key constraint for central banks is the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates. Central banks fear that if they push short-term policy interest rates too deeply negative, there will be a massive flight into paper currency. This paper asks whether, in a world where paper currency is becoming increasingly vestigial outside small transactions (at least in the legal, tax compliant economy), there might be relatively simple ways to finesse the zero bound without affecting how most ordinary people live. Surprisingly, this question gets little attention compared to the massive number of articles that take the zero bound as given and look for out-of-the-box solutions for dealing with it. In an inversion of the old joke, it is a bit as if the economics literature has insisted on positing ‘assume we don’t have a can opener,’ without considering the possibility that we might be able to devise one. It makes sense not to wait until the next financial crisis to develop plans.Link

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Recovery is Not Resolution

Recovery is Not Resolution. Carmen Reinhart, August 1, 2017, Opinion, “Earlier this year, the consensus view among economists was that the United States would outstrip its advanced-economy rivals. The expected US growth spurt would be driven by the economic stimulus package described in President Donald Trump’s election campaign. But the most notable positive economic news of 2017 among the developed countries has been coming from Europe.Link

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Central Bankers Should’ve Been More Aggressive

Central Bankers Should’ve Been More Aggressive. Kenneth Rogoff, July 20, 2017, Audio, “Kenneth Rogoff, a professor at Harvard University, says central bankers should’ve been more aggressive during the financial crisis and that India’s demonetization was done too quickly. Prior to that, Kathy Matsui, chief Japan equity strategist at Goldman Sachs Japan, says Japanese companies are strong. Robert Shiller, a professor at Yale University, says New York City housing is more affordable than people think. Finally, New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu says Washington’s stuck making the same mistakes in health care.Link

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Research: Hiring Chief Risk Officers Led Banks to Take on Even More Risk

Research: Hiring Chief Risk Officers Led Banks to Take on Even More Risk. Frank Dobbin, July 12, 2017, “Risk taking by big U.S. banks exploded in the years leading up to the 2008 financial crisis, with disastrous consequences for American firms, markets, and households. Much of the added risk, of course, came in the form of complex, opaque financial instruments like derivatives, the “financial weapons of mass destruction” that played such a central role in the crisis and the panic that followed.Link

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