Found 430 article(s) in category 'Financial Services'

Precautionary Savings in Stocks and Bonds

Precautionary Savings in Stocks and Bonds. Emil Siriwardane, Adi Sunderam, November 20, 2016, Paper, “We document a strong and robust relation between the one-year real rate and precautionary savings motives, as measured by the stock market. Our novel proxy for precautionary savings, based on the difference in valuations between low- and highvolatility stocks, explains 37% of variation in the real rate. In addition, the real rate forecasts returns on the low-minus-high volatility portfolio, though it appears unrelated with measures of the quantity of risk. Our results suggest that precautionary savings motives, and thus the real rate, are driven by time-varying attitudes towards risk. We rationalize these findings in a stylized model with segmented investor clienteles and habit formation.Link

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The Rise of Risky Derivatives: Chief Risk Officers, CEOs, and Fund Managers

The Rise of Risky Derivatives: Chief Risk Officers, CEOs, and Fund Managers. Frank Dobbin, November 18, 2016, Paper, “At turn of the century, regulators introduced policies to control bank risk-taking. Many banks appointed chief risk officers (CROs), yet bank holdings of new, complex and untested financial derivatives subsequently soared. Institutionalists suggest that firms respond to regulations by appointing compliance experts, who sometimes exaggerate legal requirements. We propose a more nuanced institutional theory of expert interests, and highlight effects of other powerful groups. Rather than overstating what the law required, risk experts sought to cement their role in shareholder-value management with compliance strategies that they also marketed as maximizing risk-adjusted returns.Link

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Does Women’s Banking Matter for Women? Evidence from urban India

Does Women’s Banking Matter for Women? Evidence from Urban India. Rohini Pande, November 16, 2016, Paper, “In many developing countries, women are prevented to take full advantage of the benefits of living in an urban area. In India, while one of every two men participates in the labor market, it is the case just for one of every six women. In this context, it is thought that access to microfinance is key to bridge the gap and to introduce women into the labor force. This is the first project to rigorously evaluate the long term impact of increasing access to microcredit on female labor force participation. In this study, we exploit quasi-experimental variation in women access to microfinance generated by a unique expansion strategy adopted by the oldest Women Bank in the world. From 1999 onward, the “ Shri Mahil Self Employment Women Association Sahkari (SEWA) Bank” massively introduced the use of loan collection officers which dramatically reduced the transaction cost of getting a loan in Ahmedabad, urban India.Link

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Understanding Bank Risk through Market Measures

Understanding Bank Risk through Market Measures. Lawrence Summers, Fall 2016, Paper, “Since the financial crisis, there have been major changes in the regulation of large banks directed at reducing their risk. Measures of regulatory capital have substantially increased; leverage ratios have been reduced; and stress-testing has sought to further assure safety by raising levels of capital and reducing risk-taking. Standard financial theories predict that such changes would lead to substantial declines in financial market measures of risk.” Link

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Research and Impacts of Digital Financial Services

Research and Impacts of Digital Financial Services. Rohini Pande, September 2016, Paper, “A growing body of rigorous research shows that financial services innovations can have important positive impacts on wellbeing, but also that many do not. We first describe the latest evidence on what works in financial inclusion. Second, we summarize research on key financial market failures and on products and innovations that address specific mechanisms underlying them. We conclude by highlighting open areas for future work.Link

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Have big banks gotten safer?

Have big banks gotten safer? Lawrence Summers, September 15, 2016, Paper, “Since the financial crisis, there have been major changes in the regulation of large financial institutions directed at reducing their risk. Measures of regulatory capital have substantially increased; leverage ratios have been reduced; and stress testing has sought to further assure safety by raising levels of capital and reducing risk taking. Standard financial theories would predict that such changes would lead to substantial declines in financial market measures of risk. For major institutions in the United States and around the world and midsized institutions in the United States, we test this proposition using information on stock price volatility, option-based estimates of future volatility, beta, credit default swaps, earnings-price ratios, and preferred stock yields.Link

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Can analysts assess fundamental risk and valuation uncertainty? An empirical analysis of scenario-based value estimates

Can analysts assess fundamental risk and valuation uncertainty? An empirical analysis of scenario-based value estimates. Suraj Srinivasan, September 2016, Paper, “We use a data set of sell-side analysts’ scenario-based equity valuation estimates to examine whether analysts can assess the state-contingent risk surrounding a firm’s fundamental value. We find that the spread in analysts’ scenario-based valuations captures the riskiness of operations and predicts the absolute magnitude of long-run valuation errors and future changes in firm fundamentals. We also show that analysts’ assessment of fundamental risk and its predictive ability systematically improved after the financial crisis, consistent with the macroeconomic shock raising analysts’ awareness of firms’ systematic risk exposures.Link

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