Found 420 article(s) in category 'Financial Services'

The Missing Dark Matter in the Wealth of Nations and its Implications for Global Imbalances

The Missing Dark Matter in the Wealth of Nations and its Implications for Global Imbalances. Ricarrdo Hausmann, August 24, 2007. “Current account statistics may not be good indicators of the evolution of a country’s net foreign assets and of its external position’s sustainability. The value of existing assets may vary independently of current account flows, so-called ‘return privileges’ may allow some countries to obtain abnormal returns, and mis-measurement of FDI, unreported trade of insurance or liquidity services, and debt relief may also play a role. We analyze the relevant evidence in a large set of countries and periods, and examine measures…” Link

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Simple Forecasts and Paradigm Shifts

Simple Forecasts and Paradigm Shifts. Jeremy Stein, June 2007, Paper. “We study the asset pricing implications of learning in an environment in which the true model of the world is a multivariate one, but agents update only over the class of simple univariate models. Thus, if a particular simple model does a poor job of forecasting over a period of time, it is discarded in favor of an alternative simple model. The theory yields a number of distinctive predictions for stock returns, generating forecastable variation in the magnitude of the value-glamour return differential, in volatility, and in the skewness of returns. We validate several…” Link

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Toward a Combined Merchant-Regulatory Mechanism for Electricity Transmission Expansion

Toward a Combined Merchant-Regulatory Mechanism for Electricity Transmission Expansion. William Hogan, April 14, 2007, Paper. “Electricity transmission pricing and transmission grid expansion have received increasing regulatory and analytical attention in recent years. Since electricity transmission is a very special service with unusual characteristics, such as loop flows, the approaches have been largely tailor-made and not simply taken from the general economic literature or from the more specific but still general incentive regulation literature. An exception has been Vogelsang (2001), who postulated transmission…” Link

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Disagreement and the Stock Market

Disagreement and the Stock Market. Jeremy Stein, Spring 2007, Paper. “A large catalog of variables with no apparent connection to risk has been shown to forecast stock returns, both in the time series and the cross-section. For instance, we see medium-term momentum and post-earnings drift in returns — the tendency for stocks that have had unusually high past returns or good earnings news to continue to deliver relatively strong returns over the subsequent six to twelve months (and vice-versa for stocks with low past returns or bad earnings news); we also see longer-run fundamental reversion — the tendency for “glamour” stocks…” Link

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Credit Constraints as a Barrier to the Entry and Post Entry Growth of Firms: Theory and Evidence.

Credit Constraints as a Barrier to the Entry and Post Entry Growth of Firms. Philippe Aghion, March 2007, Paper. “Advanced market economies are characterized by a continuous process of creative destruction. Market forces and technological developments play a major role in shaping this process, but institutional and policy settings also influence firms’ decision to enter, to expand if successful and to exit if competition becomes unbearable. In this paper, we focus on the effects of financial development on the entry of new firms and the expansion of successful new businesses…Link

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Private Credit in 129 Countries

Private Credit in 129 Countries. Andrei Shleifer, January 24, 2007, Paper. “We investigate cross-country determinants of private credit, using new data on legal creditor rights and private and public credit registries in 129 countries. Both creditor protection through the legal system and information-sharing institutions are associated with higher ratios of private credit to gross domestic product, but the former is relatively more important in the richer countries. An analysis of legal reforms shows that credit rises after improvements in creditor rights and in information sharing. Creditor rights are remarkably stable over time, contrary…” Link

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Rural Credit

Rural Credit. Rohini Pande, January 2007, Paper. “In 2000, over seventy percent of India’s population, and roughly three quarters of its poor, lived in rural areas. The main livelihood in rural India remains agriculture, an activity characterized by significant time-lags in production and a high degree of sensitivity to weather conditions. These features of agricultural production make access to financial instruments critical to a rural household’s ability to smooth income shocks and make long-term productive investments. However, as is well known lenders’ inability to perfectly identify the credit-worthiness of potential borrowers and the cost of enforcing repayment places severe restrictions on rural households’ access to credit…” Link

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Efficient Expropriation: Sustainable Fiscal Policy in a Small Open Economy

Efficient Expropriation: Sustainable Fiscal Policy in a Small Open Economy, By Aguiar, Mark, Manuel Amador, and Gita Gopinath. 2006

We study a small open economy characterized by two empirically important frictions – incomplete financial markets and an inability of the government to commit to policy. We characterize the best sustainable fiscal policy and show that it can amplify and prolong shocks to output. In particular, even when the government is completely benevolent, the government’s credibility not to expropriate capital endogenously varies with the state of the economy and may be “scarcest” during recessions. This increased threat of expropriation depresses investment, prolonging downturns. It is the incompleteness of financial markets and lack of commitment that generate investment cycles even in an environment where first best capital stock is constant. Link

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Why the US Current Account Deficit is Sustainable

Why the US Current Account Deficit is Sustainable. Ricardo Hausmann, May 27, 2006, Paper. “Over the last couple of years, the burgeoning of the US current account deficit, reaching $792 billion in 2005 alone, has led to significant concerns about the future of the United States and the possibility of a major global crisis. With a brief respite in 1991, it comes after twenty-four years of unbroken deficits, which have totalled over $5.2 trillion. According to some doomsayers, once the massive financing required to continue paying for such a widening gap dries up…” May require purchase or user account. Link

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Participatory Democracy in Action: Survey Evidence from South India

Participatory Democracy in Action: Survey Evidence from South India. Rohini Pande, January 2006, Paper: “We use household and village survey data from South India to examine who participates in village meetings called by elected local governments, and what effect these meetings have on beneficiary selection for welfare programs. Our main finding is that it is the more disadvantaged social groups who attend village meetings and that holding such meetings improves the targeting of resources towards the neediest groups.” Link

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