Found 430 article(s) in category 'Financial Services'

Here We Go Again

Here We Go Again. Ricardo Hausmann, Spring 2009, Opinion.  “Just when Latin America seemed to have overcome its chronic boom-bust cycles, the implosion on Wall Street raised new worries about instability. This time it was supposed to be different. Even as the world economy spiraled into a free fall, Latin America seemed not only poised to break the boom-bust cycle of the previous three decades—but to survive the debacle of 2008. With the economic expansion that started in 2003, the region looked stronger than it had ever been, thanks largely to the structural reforms enacted as a result of previous crises…” Link

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Global Currency Hedging

Global Currency Hedging. John Campbell, January 28, 2009, Paper. “Over the period 1975 to 2005, the US dollar (particularly in relation to the Canadian dollar) and the euro and Swiss franc (particularly in the second half of the period) have moved against world equity markets. Thus these currencies should be attractive to risk-minimizing global equity investors despite their low average returns. The risk-minimizing currency strategy for a global bond investor is close to a full currency hedge, with a modest long position in the US dollar. There is little evidence that risk-minimizing investors should adjust their currency...” Link

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Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal

Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal. Kenneth Rogoff, 2009, Paper. “The literature on the benefits and costs of financial globalization for developing countries has exploded in recent years, but along many disparate channels with a variety of apparently conflicting results. There is still little robust evidence of the growth benefits of broad capital account liberalization, but a number of recent papers in the finance literature report that equity market liberalizations do significantly boost growth…” Link

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International Aspects of Financial-Market Imperfections: The Aftermath of Financial Crises

International Aspects of Financial-Market Imperfections: The Aftermath of Financial Crises. Kenneth Rogoff, 2009, Paper. “A year ago, we presented a historical analysis comparing the run-up to the 2007 US subprime financial crisis with the antecedents of other banking crises in advanced economies since World War II (Reinhart and Rogoff 2008a). We showed that standard indicators for the United States, such as asset price inflation, rising leverage, large sustained current account deficits, and a slowing trajectory of economic growth, exhibited virtually all the signs of a country on the verge of a financial crisis…” Link

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The Economics of Structured Finance

The Economics of Structured Finance. Joshua D. Coval, Erik Stafford, Winter 2009, Paper. “This paper investigates the spectacular rise and fall of structured finance. The essence of structured finance activities is the pooling of economic assets like loans, bonds, and mortgages, and the subsequent issuance of a prioritized capital structure of claims, known as tranches, against these collateral pools. As a result of the prioritization scheme used in structuring claims, many of the manufactured tranches are far safer than the average asset in the underlying pool…” May require purchase or user account. Link

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Banking Crises: An Equal Opportunity Menace

Banking Crises: An Equal Opportunity Menace. Kenneth Rogoff, Carmen Reinhart, December 2008, Paper. “The historical frequency of banking crises is quite similar in high- and middle-to-low-income countries, with quantitative and qualitative parallels in both the run-ups and the aftermath. We establish these regularities using a unique dataset spanning from Denmark’s financial panic during the Napoleonic War to the ongoing global financial crisis sparked by subprime mortgage defaults in the United States. Banking crises dramatically weaken fiscal positions in both groups, with government revenues invariably contracting, and fiscal…” Link

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In Search of Distress Risk

In Search of Distress Risk. John Campbell, December 2008, Paper. “This paper explores the determinants of corporate failure and the pricing of financially distressed stocks whose failure probability, estimated from a dynamic logit model using accounting and market variables, is high. Since 1981, financially distressed stocks have delivered anomalously low returns. They have lower returns but much higher standard deviations, market betas, and loadings on value and small-cap risk factors than stocks with low failure risk. These patterns are more pronounced for stocks with possible informational or arbitrage-related frictions. They are…” Link

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Crisis Governance in the Administrative State: 9/11 and the Financial Meltdown of 2008

Crisis Governance in the Administrative State: 9/11 and the Financial Meltdown of 2008. Adrian Vermeule, November 1, 2008, Paper. “On September 11, 2001, a massive terrorist attack on the World Trade Center in New York killed over 3,000 Americans. The markets plunged, and airline firms reeled towards bankruptcy. Executive action and legislation followed, both to stabilize the markets and to counter terrorism. One result was seven years of debate about inherent executive power, the nature and quality of emergency lawmaking by Congress, and the risks, benefits and harms of government action…” Link

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Disclosure Is the Best Kind Of Credit Regulation

Disclosure Is the Best Kind Of Credit Regulation. Cass Sunstein, August 13, 2008, Opinion. “The Federal Reserve Board recently issued proposed amendments to Regulation Z, which governs Truth in Lending. According to the Fed, the amendments ‘are intended to improve the effectiveness of the disclosures consumers receive in connection with credit card accounts and other revolving credit plans by ensuring that information is provided in a timely manner and in a form that is readily understandable.’ The Fed’s interest in this problem should be applauded, especially in light of the consumer credit crisis…” Link

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Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?

Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices? Kenneth Rogoff, June 29, 2008, Paper. “We show that “commodity currency” exchange rates have remarkably robust power in predicting global commodity prices, both in-sample and out-of-sample, and against a variety of alternative benchmarks. This result is of particular interest to policymakers, given the lack of deep forward markets in many individual commodities, and broad aggregate commodity indices in particular. We also explore the reverse relationship (commodity prices forecasting exchange rates) but Önd it to be notably less robust…” Link

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