Found 1292 article(s) in category 'Economic Growth'

Diagnostic Expectations and Stock Returns

Diagnostic Expectations and Stock Returns. Andrei Shleifer, July 2017, Paper, “We revisit La Porta’s (1996) finding that returns on portfolios of stocks with the most optimistic analyst long term earnings growth forecasts are substantially lower than those for stocks with the most pessimistic forecasts. We document that this finding still holds, and present several further facts about the joint dynamics of fundamentals, expectations, and returns for these portfolios. We then propose a new approach to modeling belief formation and over-reaction to news that explains these facts, based on a portable psychological model of judgment by representativeness.Link

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The G20’s Misguided Globalism

The G20’s Misguided Globalism. Dani Rodrik, July 6, 2017, Opinion, “This year’s G20 summit in Hamburg promises to be among the more interesting in recent years. For one thing, US President Donald Trump, who treats multilateralism and international cooperation with cherished disdain, will be attending for the first time. Trump comes to Hamburg having already walked out of one of the key commitments from last year’s summit – to join the Paris climate agreement “as soon as possible.” And he will not have much enthusiasm for these meetings’ habitual exhortation to foreswear protectionism or provide greater assistance to refugees.Link

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China Could Export a Recession to Everyone Else

China Could Export a Recession to Everyone Else. Kenneth Rogoff, July 5, 2017, Video, “Soaring debt levels in China were a serious concern as the fallout of any crisis would hit everyone else, said a former International Monetary Fund (IMF) economist on Thursday. “If there’s a country in the world which is really going to affect everyone else and which is vulnerable, it’s got to be China today,” Kenneth Rogoff, economics professor at Harvard University, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Thursday.Link

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Russia’s future looks bleak without Economic and Political Reform

Russia’s future looks bleak without Economic and Political Reform. Kenneth Rogoff, July 5, 2017, Opinion, “When the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, meets his US counterpart, Donald Trump, at this week’s G20 summit in Hamburg, he will not be doing so from a position of economic strength. To be sure, despite the steep drop in oil prices that began three years ago, Russia has managed to escape a deep financial crisis. But while the economy is enjoying a modest rebound after two years of deep recession, the future no longer seems as promising as its leadership thought just five years ago. Barring serious economic and political reform, that bodes ill for Putin’s ability to realise his strategic ambitions for Russia.Link

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Populism and the Economics of Globalization

Populism and the Economics of Globalization. Dani Rodrik, June 2017, Paper, “Populism may seem like it has come out of nowhere, but it has been on the rise for a while. I argue that economic history and economic theory both provide ample grounds for anticipating that advanced stages of economic globalization would produce a political backlash. While the backlash may have been predictable, the specific form it took was less so. I distinguish between left-wing and right-wing variants of populism, which differ with respect to the societal cleavages that populist politicians highlight. The first has been predominant in Latin America, and the second in Europe. I argue that these different reactions are related to the relative salience of different types of globalization shocks.Link

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New 2025 Global Growth Projections Predict China’s Further Slowdown and the Continued Rise of India

New 2025 Global Growth Projections Predict China’s Further Slowdown and the Continued Rise of India. Center for International Development, June 28, 2017, Paper, “The economic pole of global growth has moved over the past few years from China to neighboring India, where it is likely to stay over the coming decade, according to new growth projections presented by researchers at the Center for International Development at Harvard University (CID). Growth in emerging markets is predicted to continue to outpace that of advanced economies, though not uniformly. The projections are optimistic about new growth hubs in East Africa and new segments of Southeast Asia, led by Indonesia and Vietnam. The growth projections are based on measures of each country’s economic complexity, which captures the diversity and sophistication of the productive capabilities embedded in its exports and the ease with which it could further diversify by expanding those capabilities.Link

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Lawrence Summers on Carbon Dividends, Border Tax, Trade

Lawrence Summers on Carbon Dividends, Border Tax, Trade. Lawrence Summers, June 20, 2017, Video, “Lawrence Summers, Harvard University Charles W. Eliot Professor and Former U.S. Treasury Secretary, discusses carbon dividends, a border adjustment tax, and U.S. trade agreements. He speaks with Bloomberg’s David Westin on “Bloomberg Daybreak: Americas.” (Source: Bloomberg)Link

 

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Financial Systems, Economic Growth, and Globalization in the Era of the Cold War

Financial Systems, Economic Growth, and Globalization in the Era of the Cold War. Niall Ferguson, 2017, Book Chapter, “Financial historians have long been interested in the relationship between financial innovation and economic growth (eg, Rousseau and Sylla 2003). From the rise of the Dutch Republic to the golden age of the pax americana, banks, capital markets, and other…Link

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